(Reuters) -Uncertainties round U.S. insurance policies might gradual international financial progress modestly in 2025, in keeping with main brokerages. They anticipate U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs to gas volatility throughout international markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in flip, limiting the scope for main central banks to ease financial coverage.
World economies and fairness markets have had a strong 12 months, with international progress anticipated to common 3.1% this 12 months, a Reuters ballot printed in October confirmed.
Following are forecasts from some prime banks on financial progress, inflation and the efficiency of main asset lessons in 2025:
Forecasts for shares, currencies and bonds:
Brokerage U.S. 10-year
goal yield goal
UBS International 6400 3.80% 1.04 157.0 7.60
Analysis
Goldman Sachs 6500 4.25% 1.03(subsequent 159(subsequent 7.50(subsequent
12-months) 12-months 12-months)
)
UBS International 6600 4.00% 1.12 145 7.50
Wealth
Administration
Wells Fargo (NYSE:) 6500-6700 4.50%-5.00% 0.98-1.02 158-162
Funding
Institute
Societe
Generale 4.50% (This fall’25) 1.09 146.3 7.28
Deutsche Financial institution (ETR:) 7000 4.7% (This fall’25) 1.03 (This fall’25)
Nomura 135 6.93
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:) 6500
3.55% (This fall’25) 1.10 (This fall’25) 138 7.60
(This fall’25) (This fall’25)
J.P.Morgan 4.10% (Q3’25) 1.08 148 7.50
6500
BofA International 6666 4.25% 1.10 160 7.40
Analysis
Wells Fargo 4.00%
BMO Capital 6700
Markets
Jefferies 6000
Barclays (LON:) 6600
Piper Sandler 6600
Berenberg 4.90% 1.08 140 7.20
BNP Paribas (OTC:) 3.65% (This fall’25) 1.15 (This fall’25) 131
(This fall’25)
U.S. Inflation:
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)
Brokerage Headline CPI Core PCE
Goldman Sachs 2.5% 2.4%
J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.3%
Morgan Stanley 2.3% 2.5% (This fall/This fall)
Barclays 2.3% 2.5%
Wells Fargo 2.6% 2.5%
Societe Generale (OTC:) 2.3% 2.5%
Deutsche Financial institution 2.6% 2.6% (This fall/This fall)
Wells Fargo 3.3%
Funding
Institute
UBS International 2.6%
Wealth
Administration
Citigroup (NYSE:) 2.1 (This fall’25) 2.3 (This fall’25)
BofA International 2.4%
Analysis
Berenberg 2.7% 2.6%
BNP Paribas 2.3%
Actual GDP Progress:
Actual GDP progress forecasts for 2025
Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO AREA UK INDIA
UBS International 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3% (for
Analysis FY 26)
Goldman Sachs 2.7% 2.5% 4.5% 0.8% 1.3% 6.3%
Barclays 3.0% 2.1% 4% 0.7% 1.2% 7.2%
Morgan Stanley 3.0% 2.1% 4.0% 1.0% 1.4% 6.5%
(FY25/FY2
6)
J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.2% 3.9% 0.8% 1.0% 6.0%
UBS International Wealth 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3%
Administration
Wells Fargo 2.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.6% 5.9%
Societe Generale 2.2% 4.7% 1.0% 1.6%
3.3%
Citigroup 1.1% 1.0%
Nomura 4.0% 6.9%
BofA International 3.3% 2.4% 4.5% 1.1%
Analysis
Deutsche Financial institution 3.1% 2.5% 4.8% 0.8% 1.3% 6.5%
Wells Fargo 2.5%
Funding
Institute
Berenberg
2.7% 2.4% 4.5% 1.0% 1.6% 6.5%
BNP Paribas
2.1% 4.5% 1.5% 1.5% 6.7%
(March
2026)
* UBS International Analysis and UBS International Wealth Administration are distinct, impartial divisions in UBS Group
* Wells Fargo Funding Institute is an entirely owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Financial institution
