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Home Economy

2:00PM Water Cooler 12/26/2024 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 12/26/2024 | bare capitalism
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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

In Case You May Miss…

What occurs if the Home fails to elect a brand new Speaker rapidly?
Justice Division is conflicted on Mangione prosecution.
A “silent” Covid surge?
Making your backyard protected for robins within the winter.

* * *

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

Trump Assassination Makes an attempt (Plural)

“Trial of man accused in Trump assassination try in Florida pushed again to September” [Associated Press]. “Ryan Routh’s trial will start Sept. 8 as a substitute of the beforehand scheduled Feb. 10, 2025 begin date, U.S. District Choose Aileen Cannon stated in an order launched on Monday…. Routh’s attorneys had requested the decide to delay the trial till no sooner than subsequent December, saying they wanted extra time to overview the proof in opposition to him and determine whether or not to mount an madness protection. Routh owned 17 cellphones and quite a few different digital gadgets, and there are a whole bunch of hours of police physique digital camera and surveillance movies which have been offered to the protection, Routh’s attorneys argued throughout a listening to two weeks in the past in Fort Pierce, Florida. In her order, Cannon stated she wished to err on the facet of offering extra time given the seriousness of the allegations, however that beginning the trial no sooner than December could be an extreme quantity. A September trial date didn’t quantity to an ‘unreasonable delay,’ she stated…. The decide stated that any madness protection or any request associated to Routh’s psychological competency have to be made by early February. Any go to to the scene of the assassination try have to be made by the top of February.”

Biden Administration

“A Reflective Biden Harbors Some Regrets as His Time period Winds Down” [New York Times]. “Regardless of being described by his allies as in a pensive, typically offended, temper as the top of his time period approaches, the president has not made himself out there to reply many questions on his current actions.” How typically is “typically”? Extra: “Except for joking about his wealth, Mr. Biden has overtly stewed over one in all Mr. Trump’s flashier — and apparently efficient — stunts as president. Throughout the identical speech at Brookings, Mr. Biden stated he had been “silly” to not signal his title to Covid stimulus checks that have been distributed to Individuals early in his time period. Mr. Trump emblazoned his signature on checks distributed after a aid invoice was handed within the spring of 2020. Mr. Biden and his advisers discovered a bit of one thing from Mr. Trump’s tendency to scrawl his title on issues. By 2023, indicators touting infrastructure tasks “funded by President Joe Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Regulation” started popping up across the nation. However these had little political influence in contrast with a signed test.” • Bush the Youthful signed his checks within the 2000s. Obama, in his miserably insufficient stimulus bundle, put up no indicators, which gave rise to remark. Trump signed his checks. And solely in 2023 does Biden’s title go up on indicators. Gradual learners, or what?

Trump Transition

“The Hitchhiker’s Information to Failing to Elect a Home Speaker Rapidly” [Chad Pergram, Thread Reader]. Authentic. Seems like a fairly large deal: “That is the breakdown when the Congress begins: 219 Republicans to 214 Democrats…. The Speaker of the Home should win an outright majority of all Members casting ballots for somebody by title. In different phrases, the particular person with probably the most votes doesn’t win… So let’s crunch the maths for Mike Johnson. If there are 219 Republicans and 4 vote for somebody moreover him – and all Democrats solid ballots for Jeffries, the tally is 215-214. However there’s no Speaker. Nobody attained an outright majority of all Members casting ballots for somebody by title. 218 is the magic quantity if all 434 Members vote. By rule, this paralyzes the Home. The Home completely, unequivocally, can’t do something till it elects a Speaker. Interval. The Home can’t swear-in Members. Technically, they’re nonetheless Representatives-elect. Solely after the Home chooses its Speaker does she or he in flip swear-in the membership. The Home actually can’t move laws. It may well’t kind committees. It’s frozen in a parliamentary paralysis till it elects a Speaker…. This additionally signifies that the Home can’t certify the outcomes of the Electoral Faculty, making President-elect Trump the forty seventh President of the US on January 6. The failure to elect a Speaker compels the Home to vote time and again….” Way more on attainable situations within the full thread. Chuck Grassley, Senate President Tempore, is fourth in line for the Presidency: “If the Home continues to be frittering away time, making an attempt to elect a Speaker on January 20, Grassley probably turns into ‘Performing President.’” • Might be entertaining! And in the present day’s Home has not had an excellent document selecting Audio system in a well timed and non-acrimonious mannner. Possibly the individuals floating Elon Musk for Speaker had these situations gamed out?

“Congress has the facility to dam Trump from taking workplace, however lawmakers should act now” [The Hill]. • Nonetheless on Part Three.

“4D Chess: Democrats Admit Trump Really Received In 2020 And Is Now Unable To Serve Third Time period” [Babylon Bee]. “In a shrewd transfer, Democratic Get together leaders lastly disclosed that Trump had, in truth, gained the 2020 election in opposition to Joe Biden and has been the rightful president this entire time, rendering him term-limited and unable to take workplace in January…. At publishing time, Nancy Pelosi introduced that she had retroactively filed articles of impeachment in opposition to Trump for the second time period he ought to have been serving the final 4 years.” • You already know they’d.

2026

Oh noes. Already?

“May 2024 Trump’s Victory Counter a 2026 ‘Midterm Curse’?” [RealClearPolitics]. “Donald Trump’s standard vote victory has eroded among the demographic positive factors Democrats have been engaged on for years, giving Republicans hope they will break the historic development of the president’s occasion dropping seats within the first midterm election after profitable the White Home. Two years from now some 14 Democratic Home members will likely be defending districts Trump gained, in comparison with simply three Republicans in districts carried by Vice President Kamala Harris. It’s a considerably higher outlook than the GOP confronted after Trump’s 2016 victory, which he eked out on the premise of an Electoral Faculty win in the important thing swing states.” And: “With a extra even taking part in discipline, the Democrats’ possibilities of profiting from the famed “midterm curse” in 2026 will rely largely on whether or not Trump’s recognition recedes over the following two years, a variable unimaginable to foretell. Whereas the nationwide politics play out, Democrats and Republicans will proceed specializing in what they will management – persevering with their redistricting courtroom battles so far as they will take them.”

2024 Put up Mortem

“Will the U.S. Ever Be Prepared for a Feminine President?” [New York Times]. “For Democrats nonetheless scarred by Hillary Clinton’s loss to Donald J. Trump in 2016, Vice President Kamala Harris’s defeat by the hands of the identical man in November has solely deepened anxieties over gender bias and prompted a recent spherical of debate over the electability of girls to the nation’s highest workplace.” • Maybe these “scarred” Democrats may give consideration to the concept that — hear me out — the standard of the candidates has one thing to do with electoral outcomes? For instance–

The Teamsters. Who wants ’em?

“Democrats have to heal their fractures or discover a new candidate from Hope” [Mark Halperin, FOX]. “For many years, United States voters have shuttled backwards and forwards between the extant two main events, rewarding them alternatively with victories and punishing them with defeats, rigorously crafting a corrective stability of pragmatism, philosophy and concord that has seen the events sharing and exchanging energy…. For each the Democrats and Republicans, subsequently, sustaining long-term power and clout has not been depending on sustaining a everlasting grip on energy, however on a disciplined self-examination after electoral failure…. Obama’s “shellacking,” George W. Bush’s 2006 midterm ‘thumping,’ Richard Nixon’s slim however decisive 1960 loss to JFK. These have been traditional wake-up calls from the U.S. citizenry to chastened leaders.” However: “For the Democratic Get together in 2024, this elemental technique of restoration gained’t be so easy. First off, many Democrats stay within the grips of Trump Derangement Syndrome, which makes introspection and lodging unimaginable…. Second, the Democratic Get together has spent years in denial [of Biden’s severe loss of acuity], which is a tough behavior to interrupt…. Moreover, refusing to acknowledge that Vice President Kamala Harris was not a powerful presidential candidate additionally has impeded the Democratic Get together’s restoration course of.” • It wasn’t simply “denial” about Biden; it was outright mendacity, high to backside, by individuals who met with him extensively and maintained he was “sharp as a tack.”

Our Famously Free Press

“Conspiracy principle is the brand new regular: 2024 was the yr QAnon went mainstream” [Amanda Marcotte, Salon]. I maintain forgetting Marcotte continues to be typing. “An alternative choice, nevertheless, is to take heed to what swing voters who backed Trump stated about their choice. That would appear the wisest selection, however to be truthful to individuals who don’t need to go there, listening to these individuals out is a very depressing expertise. What rapidly turns into evident in regards to the median voters in an American focus group is how profoundly opposed they’re to even probably the most fundamental factual data. Quite the opposite, it’s a neighborhood with a pathological aversion to actuality, the place individuals compulsively react to something truth-shaped with hostility, working as laborious as they will towards disinformation. They’re hooked on BS. After all they voted for Trump, the nation’s most dependable supplier of their favourite drug. This may increasingly sound ungenerous to those voters, however provided that you’ve been sparing your self the torture of participating their precise opinions. In case you maintain your nostril and dive in, it’s startling how a lot the everyday swing voter is allergic to information. It’s not simply ignorance, however overt hostility to something that smacks of veracity.” • Like, ya know, saying out loud that Biden’s mind was turning to mush?

“Most Individuals are avoiding politics information: ballot” [Axios]. “About two-thirds of Individuals have not too long ago felt the necessity to restrict their political information consumption, in response to a current ballot. The reluctance to eat political information is mirrored in TV scores. Individuals of all events, and Democrats particularly, are tuning out politics. Folks don’t really feel the identical have to keep away from information about abroad conflicts, the financial system or local weather change, per an AP-NORC survey performed in early December. The ballot additionally discovered that Individuals need public figures to speak much less about politics. About 7 in 10 Democrats stated they’re stepping again from political information. About 6 in 10 Republicans and independents say the identical.” • TV and cable. However not, say, TikTok?

Democrats en déshabillé

“What Does It Imply When Your Get together Model Collapses?” [The Liberal Patriot]. “How precisely is a Democratic Get together break up alongside these strains—centrists versus progressives with a heaping portion of disengaged and uninterested members—going to restore its model anytime quickly? With out some factional co-mingling below the robust management of a charismatic new occasion determine that everybody accepts briefly (suppose Barack Obama), the one manner this will get resolved is that if one of many two sides wins majority management of the occasion establishments and units it on a course extra according to their method. This appears unlikely since neither faction is especially excited by coherent and cohesive occasion constructing outdoors of their strongholds. Centrists are a diffuse bunch largely concentrated in districts and states which can be extremely aggressive the place politicians should downplay their connections to the occasion or run in opposition to it to draw extra average to conservative voters. Progressives are concentrated in deep blue areas of the nation the place more and more left-wing financial and cultural views rule the day amongst occasion devoted and the place swing-voters both don’t exist or aren’t determinative. Given the present geographical limitations of the Democratic coalition, when you needed to decide one facet of this intra-party debate over the opposite, you’d favor the centrist mannequin purely for political expediency in making an attempt to win extra Home and Senate seats and Electoral Faculty votes in battleground states. The mathematics is brutal in any other case. As is normally the case with Democrats, nevertheless, stasis is the extra probably winner of the upcoming battle that means nothing actually will change….” • Alrighty then. (The article goes on to advocate “fusionism” a la Reagan’s profitable rebranding of the Republican occasion primarily based on “freedom, free markets, and conventional values.”)

* * *

“Marianne Williamson launches bid for DNC chair” [The Hill]. “Former presidential candidate Marianne Williamson on Thursday launched a bid for chair of the Democratic Nationwide Committee (DNC), leaping right into a crowded discipline of candidates vying to rebuild the occasion after its normal election losses final month…. Among the many different declared contenders are New York state Sen. James Skoufis (D), Minnesota Democratic Get together Chair Ken Martin, Wisconsin Democratic Get together Chair Ben Wikler, former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley and former Homeland Safety official Nate Snyder.” • May Williamson be worse?

“New Hampshire lawmaker displays on retiring from Congress: ‘I’m making an attempt to set a greater instance’” [Boston Globe]. “[Representative Annie M. Kuster], 68, stated her choice to retire was primarily based on many components, together with Donald Trump’s approaching return to the presidency, however she hopes it would additionally encourage Democrats to make room for youthful generations within the halls of energy. ‘I’m making an attempt to set a greater instance,’ Kuster instructed the Globe. ‘I believe there are colleagues — and a few of whom are nonetheless very profitable and really productive — however others who simply keep perpetually.’”

“‘I In all probability May Have Flipped Over a Few Extra Tables’” (interview) [Cori Bush, Politico]. “AIPAC spent at the very least $8 million to defeat you. Do you would like Democratic leaders had achieved extra to maintain the group out of primaries this yr or lend you extra help? [BUSH:] Completely. At this level, sure, and looking out ahead, Democratic management has to do one thing. Democratic management should make the choice that this company cash shouldn’t be ready for use in Democratic primaries. As a result of that was the deciding issue on this race. Democrats should ban company PAC donations, and particularly have to talk up and push to ban the tremendous PAC spending in our Democratic primaries. That’s the solely manner that this doesn’t occur once more, as a result of I wasn’t unseated as a result of I didn’t care for my neighborhood. We introduced over $2 billion to our district in 4 years. We helped 1000’s of constituents who reached out to our workplace to assist them navigate federal companies, whether or not it was housing or PPP loans, no matter their want was. Let me additionally add the eviction moratorium. It saved individuals in our district and across the nation. That work was for 11 million individuals round this nation to remain housed in the course of the lethal world pandemic. And I nonetheless hear in the present day from individuals across the nation who say, ‘You have been the rationale why I used to be capable of keep housed.’”

Republican Funhouse

So the non-public isn’t political?

Realignment and Legitimacy

That’s the stuff to provide the troops:

Re-reading Huey Lengthy’s “Share Our Wealth” speech from 1934 certain is one thing. pic.twitter.com/MmwWyMx1sF

— Elliot Haspel (@ehaspel) December 24, 2024

No marvel “they” shot him.

* * *
* * *

“Luigi Mangione’s sweater sells out at Nordstrom someday after courtroom look” [The Independent]. “Mangione was carrying a white-collared shirt beneath the sweater along with gentle gray slacks and orange sneakers on the courthouse. Whereas followers first thought his sweater was a $1,000 Maison Margiela sweater, it was later decided that Mangione was carrying the “washable Merino crewneck sweater” from Nordstrom. The sweater was beforehand out there for $89.50 in response to the Nordstrom web site, however it’s at the moment on sale for $62.65 with 30 % off. The sweater is available in six different colours other than the burgundy one, which is now not out there.” • The aghastitude of the press appears to be having little impact, on the market within the biomass. Give it time, I suppose. I’m wondering how most of the burgundy sweaters have been Christmas presents?

“Well being Insurance coverage Leaders Pressured DOJ To Cost Luigi Mangione” [Dan Boguslaw (!), Deeper State]. “In keeping with reporting by Joe Marino, Ben Kochman and Matt Troutman final week, medical insurance leaders pressured the DOJ to make an instance of Luigi Mangione by bringing federal costs in opposition to him in a shock announcement that caught his attorneys off guard. If tried in federal courtroom, Mangione might be sentenced to dying, silencing any additional criticism of the American healthcare system he decried in his manifesto. In keeping with the Put up’s[1] report, ‘federal costs got here amid stress from medical insurance trade leaders to make an instance out of Mangione.’ The Put up additionally writes that the choice to unveil federal costs ‘got here from the highest of the DOJ in Washington D.C.’ How and when healthcare trade leaders tried to strong-arm the division of justice stays unclear. However the high three DOJ officers below Lawyer Basic Merrick Garland have all represented huge healthcare corporations throughout their respective stints in non-public apply earlier than becoming a member of the DOJ…. At O’Melveny & Myers, [Lisa Monaco, the Deputy U.S. Attorney General] represented Humana–the fifth largest U.S. medical insurance firm… Notably, O’Melveny & Myers additionally efficiently defended United Well being in a go well with introduced by United Well being group insured sufferers earlier this yr…. The quantity three at DOJ, Performing Affiliate AG Benjamin Mizer, additionally represented healthcare and pharmaceutical large Sanofi-Aventis, amongst others corporations…. The quantity three at DOJ, Performing Affiliate AG Benjamin Mizer, additionally represented healthcare and pharmaceutical large Sanofi-Aventis, amongst others corporations. Lastly, #4 at DOJ, Solicitor Basic Elizabeth Prolegar, reported Lumos Pharma, Syneos Well being, and Amgen, as former purchasers on her disclosure.” • Sigh. NOTE [1] The New York Put up. BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA!!!!

* * *

Not so certain of the supply, and positively certain about among the responses, however doesn’t the signage speaks for itself?

🇮🇱🇺🇲 “Capitol Hill is Israeli occupied territory.”

— Pat Buchanan pic.twitter.com/WG5SAgNmyr

— Keith Woods (@KeithWoodsYT) December 23, 2024

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Transmission: Covid

“A ‘silent’ COVID surge might hit the US over the vacations, consultants warn — right here’s what which means” [Today]. “They’re calling it ‘silent’ as a result of this winter wave follows an extended interval of unusually low COVID exercise this fall, so many individuals are unaware that COVID ranges have risen sharply over the previous two weeks, the latest wastewater information from the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention present. Because of this, individuals might not know their threat of an infection is growing and never take a look at if they’ve solely delicate signs, which may trigger the virus to unfold at vacation gatherings, throughout journey and extra. As of Dec. 14, wastewater viral exercise of SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19 — is ‘excessive’ or ‘very excessive’ in 21 states, in response to CDC information.” IMNSHO, states don’t matter almost a lot as cities, as a result of persons are concentrated in cities. The CDC’s wastewater map reveals little or no pink (particularly in comparison with previous surges). Extra: ” ‘There’s an excellent likelihood that lots of people are going to get sick within the subsequent couple of weeks and be unaware of it. Most individuals usually are not monitoring CDC information, and so their solely manner of understanding whether or not we’re in a wave is that if they’ve gotten sick,’ Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., affiliate professor at Tulane College College of Drugs and public well being professional on monitoring COVID-19 tendencies, tells TODAY.com.” • For a critique of Hoerger’s mannequin, see right here. I believe the entire “silent surge” speaking level is misplaced. (1) The “surge” in absolute phrases will likely be low. I don’t need anyone to get Covid, however let’s preserve a way of realism. (2) I reject your complete paradigrm of adjusting conduct to Hoerger’s projections, or anybody else’s (and this contains hospital an infection management applications). The info lags, within the case of CDC’s Inexperienced Map, by two weeks. Because of this within the case of a variant present process exponential progress, the surge might be huge earlier than any alarm bells ring. Due to this fact, IMNSHO, the one wise plan of action is to be constant in your protocol always, after which a “surge,” of no matter dimensions, won’t ever catch you unexpectedly.

Transmission: H5N1

“Biden’s USDA Let H5N1 Unfold. Now Chook Flu is a Loaded Gun in Trump’s Arms” [The Gauntlet]. “H5N1 needn’t be circulating in dairy cows. It may and will have been eradicated months in the past. It nonetheless could be with aggressive motion. Sadly, the Biden administration hasn’t made any critical try to halt the virus, nor does it look prone to take the form of daring motion wanted now. However that may hardly shock anybody who has paid consideration to the unprecedented sickness normalization and public well being vilification that has occurred since 2020…. H5N1 needn’t be circulating in dairy cows. It may and will have been eradicated months in the past. It nonetheless could be with aggressive motion. Sadly, the Biden administration hasn’t made any critical try to halt the virus, nor does it look prone to take the form of daring motion wanted now. However that may hardly shock anybody who has paid consideration to the unprecedented sickness normalization and public well being vilification that has occurred since 2020.” • Yep. It’s not attainable to reverse engineer the probability of a pandemic from the institutional response to its risk, however it have been, buckle up.

Vaccines

It will be amusing if we couldn’t develop vaccines in opposition to chicken flu… due to chicken flu:

Only a reminder, we want eggs for Flu vaccines. We’re nonetheless within the Part 1 Trial for the mRNA Vaccine for #H5N1. To make vaccines for the U.S. inhabitants, we’ll want 900,000 eggs day by day from hens for 9 months. That is assuming that the chickens do not get contaminated with #BirdFlu

— Danielle Beckman (@DaniBeckman) December 23, 2024

* * *

Lambert right here: The State of New York and Walgreens nonetheless chugging alongside faithfully.

TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts

Wastewater

This week[1] CDC December 16

Final week[2] CDC (till subsequent week):

Variants [3] CDC December 21

Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC December 14

Hospitalization

★New York[5] New York State, information December 24:

Nationwide [6] CDC December 19:

Positivity

★ Nationwide[7] Walgreens December 23:

Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic December 14:

Vacationers Information

Positivity[9] CDC December 2:
Variants[10] CDC December 2::

Deaths

Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 20:

Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 20:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new in the present day; all others usually are not up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Seeing extra pink and extra orange, however nothing new at main hubs.

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has achieved an amazing job normalizing successive waves of an infection.

[4] (ED) Slightly uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveled out.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward development since, effectively, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Positivity is new, however variants haven’t but been launched.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

Employment Scenario: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “Preliminary jobless claims within the US eased by 1,000 from the earlier week to 219,000 within the second week of December, contrasting with market expectations that they’d have risen to 224,000.”

* * *

Manufacturing: “Courtroom ruling on Boeing sends Florida an vital message about range efforts” [Tampa Bay Times]. “Just lately, a federal decide rejected a plea deal for Boeing geared toward resolving the corporate’s questions of safety which have led to lethal disasters and different incidents involving its plane…. Choose Reed O’Connor expressed issues that the courtroom wouldn’t have enough supervision of vital adjustments on the firm below the settlement. Nevertheless, he spent most of his 12-page ruling specializing in a provision within the firm’s plea take care of the Division of Justice that stated an impartial monitor could be employed ‘in line with the Division’s dedication to range and inclusion.’ … ‘In a case of this magnitude, it’s within the utmost curiosity of justice that the general public is assured this monitor choice is made primarily based solely on competency. The events’ DEI efforts solely undermine this confidence within the Authorities and Boeing’s ethics and anti-fraud efforts. Accordingly, the diversity-and-inclusion provision renders the plea settlement in opposition to the general public curiosity.’” • With some attention-grabbing feedback on Boeing’s tradition of “secrecy and intimidation.”

* * *

Right this moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 37 Concern (earlier shut: 34 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 21 (Excessive Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 26 at 1:22:08 PM ET.

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 181. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is sweet.) • Laborious to imagine the Rapture Index isn’t at an all-time excessive. Doesn’t the collapse of Syria carry the Third Temple nearer? Do these individuals know one thing we don’t?

The Conservatory

“The Energy Of A Single Notice: The Poetic Creativeness Of Yunchan Lim” [3 Quarks Daily]. Lim: “‘[W]hen I press the G-sharp key, if it strikes my coronary heart, then I transfer on to the following one. . .If my coronary heart doesn’t really feel it when transferring to the A-sharp key, I maintain doing it. . . . if the A-sharp key strikes my coronary heart, then I apply connecting the primary and second notes, and if that connection strikes my coronary heart, then I transfer on to the third be aware.” • Readers?

Gallery

Good quote:

Fairfield Porter’s portray was sketched early on the morning of 25 December 1961: ‘ I remembered what Bonnard stated Renoir instructed him ‘make all the things extra lovely. This partly signifies that a portray ought to comprise a thriller however not for thriller’s sake: a thriller that’s important… pic.twitter.com/ZfBj5FmtvB

— Richard Morris (@ahistoryinart) December 25, 2024

Zeitgeist Watch

Good name by Yglesias:

pic.twitter.com/3rOPt4bG3m

— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) December 25, 2024

There was a tremendous dogpile over this girl’s thesis — granted, written in present tutorial jargon — and it seems (“sensory branding”) she bought it proper, as did Yglesias (“even a blind pig finds a truffle on occasion”).

Information of the Wired

“Make your backyard a protected haven for robins this winter with these professional suggestions” [Euronews]. “Throughout a chilly winter, as much as half of backyard birds may be misplaced to chilly and starvation. Within the UK, the Purple Listing of endangered chicken species has greater than doubled within the final 25 years. Robins – the nation’s nationwide chicken – are significantly weak as they keep loyal to their gardens regardless of the climate. A robin can use as much as 10 per cent of its physique weight to maintain heat on a single winter night time. Until it may replenish its reserves daily, a chilly spell can show deadly. With hedgerows declining, there’s a lack of pure meals, and with out supplementary chicken feeding in gardens, many robins die of chilly and hunger.” For Robins: “In keeping with [Sean McMenemy], one of the best meals for robins are mealworms and calci worms, fatty meals like suet pellets, meaty kitchen scraps, delicate cheese, cake and biscuit crumbs, dried fruit and crushed peanuts. Robins want to forage and feed off the bottom. Place a small tray near a shrub, tree or perch, and you could quickly discover them gaining sufficient confidence to feed out of your hand.” And on the whole: “Making certain your backyard isn’t too pristine or tidy may also assist. Wild undergrowth encourages the proliferation of bugs and helps robins to seek out meals. Useless leaves, log piles and twigs additionally assist bugs to thrive.” • I used to be taught way back that “Birds love a large number.” It’s true!

* * *

Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are high-quality! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From SC:

SC writes up his present autumn backyard venture:

Within the curiosity of smoothing out the seasonality of my vegetation beginning passion, I’ve been making an attempt to start out sure perennials sooner than typical (typical time for indoor begins for me has beforehand been mid-Winter, in early February) and harden them off outdoor in late Winter or early Spring when it’s nonetheless manner too chilly to maneuver annuals outdoor. This yr, I’m pushing the schedule even earlier, to see if it may work to start out cold-hardy perennials in late Summer time/early Autumn, develop them to a decent measurement after which plant them earlier than the bottom freezes. The take a look at case is Purple Coneflower, which, in my previous expertise of rising it from seed on the traditional “sow in February” schedule, doesn’t bloom vigorously till the 2nd yr. The hooked up photograph is of a shelf of coneflowers began in mid-September, per week earlier than the Solstice. The seeds are about 2 years previous (bought early 2023 from Prairie Moon Nursery) however nonetheless extremely viable; 136 of 144 seeds produced robust seedlings. This photograph was taken October 20, about 5 weeks after sowing. About half have since been moved outdoors, and 36 of these are already distributed and planted by the recipient. It stays to be seen whether or not these will bloom properly in Spring 2025. In the event that they do, this schedule will minimize almost in half the time from “seed to good-looking bloom show” (and, extra importantly from my perspective, will unencumber time and rack area in the course of the busy interval in mid-late Winter).

In followup to an inquiry to the commentariat I made some months in the past, re: deterring squirrel depredations, peppermint important oil appears to be extremely efficient. I exploit 1 mL of oil per half-Liter of water, with some liquid dish cleaning soap to assist emulsify the oil. At $10 per 120 mL oil, it prices a couple of pennies per tray per software. It most likely must be reapplied after rain. Squirrels have been tearing up my trays and pots, evidently in search of meals (it has been dry all Summer time and there could also be a meals scarcity for them) however the trays handled with peppermint oil have been left alone.

Of attainable curiosity to fellow newbie propagators, the pictured develop association is a Residence Depot HDX 18x48x72″ metal rack with “Monios-L” 48″ LED develop lights, 3 strips per shelf. This mixture is less expensive than the custom-built illuminated develop racks offered by on-line gardening provide retailers.

I actually am an newbie propagator, although maybe to not vigorously now as up to now.

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. Materials right here is Lambert’s, and doesn’t specific the views of the Bare Capitalism website. In case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get anxious. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets:

Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

In case you hate PayPal, you possibly can e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will provide you with instructions on the best way to ship a test. Thanks!

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This entry was posted in Water Cooler on December 26, 2024 by Lambert Strether.

About Lambert Strether

Readers, I’ve had a correspondent characterize my views as reasonable cynical. Let me briefly clarify them. I imagine in common applications that present concrete materials advantages, particularly to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime instance, however tuition-free school and a Put up Workplace Financial institution additionally fall below this heading. So do a Jobs Assure and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can ship on such applications, as a result of the 2 are totally different flavors of neoliberalism (“As a result of markets”). I don’t a lot care in regards to the “ism” that delivers the advantages, though whichever one does should put frequent humanity first, versus markets. Might be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t a lot care, so long as the advantages are delivered.

To me, the important thing difficulty — and that is why Medicare for All is at all times first with me — is the tens of 1000’s of extra “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton examine, and different current research. That big physique depend makes Medicare for All, on the very least, an ethical and strategic crucial. And that stage of struggling and natural harm makes the issues of id politics — even the worthy combat to assist the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — vibrant shiny objects by comparability. Therefore my frustration with the information circulation — at the moment in my opinion the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the opposite by out-of-power liberals and their allies within the State and within the press — a information circulation that always forces me to deal with issues that I regard as of secondary significance to the surplus deaths. What sort of political financial system is it that halts and even reverses the will increase in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I’m additionally very hopeful that the persevering with destruction of each occasion institutions will open the area for voices supporting applications much like these I’ve listed; let’s name such voices “the left.” Volatility creates alternative, particularly if the Democrat institution, which places markets first and opposes all such applications, isn’t allowed to get again into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I like the tactical stage, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been running a blog about it day by day for fourteen years, however all the things I write has this attitude in the back of it.

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