By Lambert Strether.
Affected person readers, I obtained a really late begin at the moment, so this Water Cooler might be fairly gentle. Sorry! –lambert
Hen Tune of the Day
Brown Thrasher, Bindloss Campground, Hanna, Alberta, Canada.
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In Case You Would possibly Miss…
Yanis Varoufakis on Trumponomics.
DOGE not placing up the numbers on fraud.
Zephyr Teachout on the true powers the Democrats have.
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
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Trump Administration
“Donald Trump’s financial masterplan” [Yanis Varoufakis, Unherd]. “The unsophisticated Trump is, the truth is, way more subtle than [mainstream economists] in that he understands how uncooked financial energy, not marginal productiveness, decides who does what to whom — each domestically and internationally. Although we threat the abyss staring again once we try and gaze into Trump’s thoughts, we do want a grasp of his pondering on three basic questions: why does he imagine that America is exploited by the remainder of the world? What’s his imaginative and prescient for a brand new worldwide order wherein America could be ‘nice’ once more? How does he plan to deliver it about? Solely then can we produce a wise critique of Trump’s financial masterplan.” • I’ve learn this, and I can’t excerpt it correctly. However Yanis isn’t any dummy (even when he does suppose BRICS has extra sprezzatura than it does). Kudos to him for treating Trump as, nicely, a thinker, as an alternative of ranting. I believe I’ll run this once more when individuals can talk about, however for now, please learn.
“Why Trump 2.0 Appears to be like Unstoppable” [RealClearPolitics]. “Trump’s second time period is off to a a lot better begin than his first. It’s price wanting on the elements which have made Trump 2.0 so dominant. The primary is that he has a a lot better understanding of how he can use his energy to perform his objectives. His govt orders include particular directions to dismantle the regulatory state and withdraw the woke tentacles the left has used to affect American society. That’s partly as a result of his supporters spent their years in exile crafting detailed plans for his eventual return. Second, his staffing selections have been excellent and aligned together with his imaginative and prescient. That wasn’t the case in his first time period, which was hampered by leaks, inner drama and workers upheaval. In his first time period, ‘lots of his Cupboard picks quietly or overtly labored to cease his concepts,’ the Related Press lately wrote. That isn’t taking place now, and the advance is clear. The third change is how rapidly he’s shifting. In his first time period, Trump signed one govt order on Jan. 20, 2017. This yr, Trump signed greater than two dozen on his first day in workplace. And he’s stored up a fast tempo.” • Arduous to disagree with any of this.
“Trump’s Physique Language Throughout Baffling Elon Musk Press Convention Spoke Volumes, Consultants Say” [HuffPo]. Personally, I believed Musk utilizing his child as prop was unhealthy. Be that as it might: “[Mark Bowden, body language expert and author,] thinks the Tesla CEO used his son as a distraction, notably at one level, when he appeared to deflect a query by jokingly saying that his son, who was then on his shoulders, was sticking his fingers in his ears. A reporter had requested Musk to reveal extra details about the fraud his DOGE group has claimed to have seen throughout the Treasury Division. ‘On this second, Musk makes use of his son as a car to justify his personal discomfort,’ Bowden stated. ‘He takes off his hat, brushes his hair again, and swings backward and forward — all nervous adaptive behaviors.’ [Patti Wood, a body language and nonverbal communication expert] referred to as the scenario weird, saying that Musk was attempting to include his preschooler whereas speaking about ;making vital, impactful modifications’ like slashing federal budgets. She thinks Musk was probably suggested that having his son there would make him look ‘heat and fuzzy,’ however that as an alternative it made him look ‘clownish’ and ‘Trump ineffective by affiliation.’ She stated that Trump made ‘failed’ efforts to work together with the 4-year-old at factors within the convention.”
RFK confirmed:
BREAKING—RFK Jr has been confirmed as Trump’s HHS Secretary by 52-48. The one GOP senator to vote “No” with Democrats was Mitch McConnell—who survived polio as a baby, and is a powerful advocate for vaccinations. Now, founding father of the most important anti-vax disinfo group is HHS… pic.twitter.com/D8ndwwZPtM
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 13, 2025
I assume, on the brilliant aspect, we’re going to present a inhabitants of 300 million or so a marvellous alternative to show adaptability. Particularly youngsters.
DOGE
“Trump and Musk can’t appear to find a lot proof of fraud” [WaPo]. The deck: “They preserve justifying their daring strikes as combating fraud, however they’ve been unable thus far to level to a lot of something particular that’s really fraudulent.” For instance:
By Wednesday, White Home press secretary Karoline Leavitt was pressed on the supposed proof of fraud — and seemingly got here ready.
“As for the precise receipts, we’re completely happy to supply them, and I really introduced some at the moment,” Leavitt stated, as she waved round printouts.
She proceeded to say 4 issues:
A $36,000 contract for variety, fairness and inclusion (DEI) at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Companies.
A $3.4 million contract for “inclusive innovation” on the U.S. Patent and Trademark Workplace.
$57,000 for local weather change packages in Sri Lanka.
A limestone mine in Pennsylvania the place federal worker retirements are processed on paper.
I do know pennies add up, however is that this price placing DOGEbags within the operations chair of each govt company? Numerous tweets although!
NOTE Appears to be like like Elon learn my publish yesterday, and constructed out the web site. I took a cursory look. The org chart of the Federal Authorities is sort of neat, quite like these wind-blown whirligigs you see in individuals’s entrance yards, nevertheless it’s hardly full. For instance, it leaves out the Govt Workplace of the President of america completely, therefore DOGE, therefore your complete parallel construction DOGE is making an attempt to introduce. Additionally, there’s nonetheless no US flag. Possibly they determined a South African flag could be an excessive amount of?
Trump Administration
“Decide Quickly Reinstalls Particular Counsel Dellinger After Trump Firing” [Whistleblower Network News]. “Late on February 10, a federal decide issued an administrative keep permitting Particular Counsel Hampton Dellinger to stay in his publish by Thursday as he challenges his termination by President Trump. Dellinger oversees the Workplace of Particular Counsel (OSC), an impartial company that protects federal staff from whistleblower retaliation and investigates whistleblower disclosures about wrongdoing in federal businesses. Dellinger was notified of his termination late on February 7 and sued the White Home, claiming that his firing was unlawful. Below federal statute, the Particular Counsel could be eliminated by the President ‘just for inefficiency, neglect of responsibility, or malfeasance in workplace.’ The White Home has not pointed to any of those points in eradicating Dellinger. Below the keep granted by Decide Amy Berman Jackson, ‘Hampton Dellinger shall proceed to function the Particular Counsel of the Workplace of Particular Counsel… and the defendants could not deny him entry to the sources or supplies of that workplace or acknowledge the authority of every other individual as Particular Counsel.’… Nationwide Whistleblower Middle has launched an emergency marketing campaign in response to the wrongful termination of Particular Counsel Dellinger. They’re urging supporters to hitch them and to contact their Representatives and Senators instantly and categorical their concern on the problem.”
Democrats en déshabillé
“Pay Much less Consideration to That Man in Entrance of the Curtain” [Zephyr Teachout, The Nation]. Significantly better than the standard Nation fare. “But initially the 2 present leaders of the Democratic Social gathering appeared decided to broadcast their very own weak point. Minority chief Hakeem Jeffries spent final week at a donor retreat with billionaire tech leaders, solely to emerge whining, ‘What leverage do we now have? They management the Home, the Senate, and the presidency.’… Jeffries’s conflation of “leverage” with “holding a majority in a chamber” is jaw-dropping. Energy—the flexibility to vary the habits of one other—comes from data, charisma, regulation, consideration, process, experience, and the flexibility to convene and arrange. … What may they’ve executed? Listed below are 4 strategies: First, vigorous procedural delay….. Second, convene and highlight. They need to not see their energy simply by the lens of the way it has historically been used. Congressional Democratic management also needs to make full use of their very own convening energy, holding hearings taking testimony from fired and pressured staff…. Congressional Democrats may do extra on primary authorized safety of the establishment. The individuals’s home is underneath assault, and they need to be wielding regulation like swords to defend it. Whereas Democratic state attorneys common have been submitting lawsuit after lawsuit, congressional management—whose personal energy because the lawmaking arm of the American public is being decimated—ought to perceive additionally they must play a key position in ensuring lawsuits are introduced to dam the destruction. No matter their authorized skills, they’re all astute fundraisers, and may play matchmaker between constituents, doable plaintiffs, legal professionals, and donors to ensure that efficient and well-resourced lawsuits are delivered to cease the unlawful energy performs….. Lastly, they will go on offense, forcing Trump and Republicans to both assist Individuals, or clearly show that they don’t need to. Which means being prepared to work with Republicans—if they will get legal guidelines handed that make individuals’s lives higher, and never concentrate on Democratic Social gathering branding.” • And from Teachout’s thread on this text:
My first day of sophistication in Market Construction and Democracy we speak about energy, what’s it, the place it comes from, all of the varieties, I can not imagine that members of Congress cannot see past their little routines when it comes to energy.
— Zephyr Teachout (@ZephyrTeachout) February 13, 2025
I can imagine it….
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
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Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Transmission: H5N1
Oh nicely, India is way away:
9 wards of the town have been declared H5N1-infected zones, with store closures, meals restrictions.
Officers confirmed the virus in a number of feline samples, prompting an and a complete ban on hen and mutton gross sales.
2/2
— Outbreak Updates (@outbreakupdates) February 12, 2025
Airborne Transmission: H5N1
“Genetic knowledge and meteorological situations: unravelling the windborne transmission of H5N1 high-pathogenicity avian influenza between business poultry outbreaks” [bioRxiv]. “Throughout the 2023-24 HPAI season, molecular surveillance recognized similar H5N1 strains amongst a cluster of unrelated business farms about 8 km aside within the Czech Republic. The episode began with the abrupt mortality of fattening geese on one farm and was adopted by illness outbreaks at two close by high-biosecurity hen farms. Utilizing genetic, epizootiological, meteorological and geographical knowledge, we reconstructed a mosaic of occasions strongly suggesting wind was the mechanism of an infection transmission between poultry in at the very least two impartial instances. By aligning the genetic and meteorological knowledge with crucial outbreak occasions, we decided the most probably time window throughout which the transmission occurred and inferred the sequence of contaminated homes on the recipient websites. Our outcomes counsel that the contaminated plume emitted from the contaminated fattening duck farm was the crucial medium of HPAI transmission, quite than the mud generated throughout depopulation. Moreover, additionally they strongly implicate the position of confined mechanically-ventilated buildings with excessive inhabitants densities in facilitating windborne transmission and propagating virus concentrations under the minimal infectious dose on the recipient websites.” • We’ve had anecdotal proof of long-distance airborne transmission by way of mud from Texas, and a modeling research, however this research appears to have all of the hyperlinks within the chain. Look out, Massive Ag.
Elite Maleficence
“Decide orders HHS, CDC and FDA to revive deleted webpages with well being data” [CBS]. “U.S. District Decide John Bates agreed to grant a brief restraining order sought by the group Medical doctors for America, which argued that its members used the web sites when treating sufferers and conducting analysis. The nonprofit group stated that the removing of the webpages by the Division of Well being and Human Companies and its elements violated federal regulation. Bates discovered that the challengers had been probably to reach their claims that the Division Well being and Human Companies, CDC and FDA acted unlawfully once they stripped medical data from public-facing web sites. ‘It bears emphasizing who finally bears the hurt of defendants’ actions: on a regular basis Individuals, and most acutely, underprivileged Individuals, in search of healthcare,’ he wrote. Citing declarations from two docs filed within the case, Bates stated in the event that they ‘can not present these people the care they want (and deserve) throughout the scheduled and sometimes restricted time-frame, there’s a likelihood that some people won’t obtain therapy, together with for extreme, life-threatening situations. The general public thus has a powerful curiosity in avoiding these severe accidents to the general public well being.’”
“THE LIST: 101 Organizations, Establishments, People, and Instruments that UCSF’s Vinay Prasad Has Attacked” [Pandemic Accountability Index]. Caption: “Vinay Prasad is celebrating 1000’s of scientific researchers shedding their jobs. Now who will carry out all of the RCTs he spent years demanding?” Nothing flawed with a little bit of invective: “What Vinay Prasad is doing to medication and science is what Youtube, Twitter, and different social media platforms have enabled for discussions round leisure media like movies, videogames, and even skilled wrestling for a few years now. It’s referred to as outrage farming. It’s develop into a complete business at this level. You’re probably nicely acquainted with it by now – whether or not it’s screeching that ‘woke’ has ruined Star Wars, that videogames don’t have sufficient bikini babes anymore, or that All Elite Wrestling goes bankrupt in two weeks – there’s no finish of exploitative, chatGPT-brained slop on social media meant to drum up hate – and Vinay Prasad has introduced this to medication.”
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TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts
Wastewater
This week[1] CDC February 3
Final week[2] CDC (till subsequent week):
Variants [3] CDC February 1
Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC February 1
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, knowledge February 11:
Nationwide [6] CDC February 7:
Positivity
Nationwide[7] Walgreens February 10:
Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic February 8:
Vacationers Knowledge
Positivity[9] CDC January 20:
Variants[10] CDC January 20
Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC January 25:
Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC January 25:
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new at the moment; all others should not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Down, nothing new at main hubs.
[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has executed an awesome job normalizing successive waves of an infection.
[4] (ED) A bit uptick.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Undoubtedly jumped, however no exponential development both, Odd.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.
[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward development since, nicely, Thanksgiving.
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Leveling out.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Positivity is new, however variants haven’t but been launched.
[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.
[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.
Stats Watch
Inflation: “United States Producer Costs” [Trading Economics]. “Producer Costs in america elevated to 147.72 factors in January from 147.13 factors in December of 2024.”
Employment Scenario: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “Preliminary jobless claims within the US fell by 7,000 from the earlier week to 213,000 on the primary week of February, under market expectations of 215,000. Within the meantime, recurring claims fell by 36,000 to 1,850,000 within the final week of January, firmly under market expectations of 1,880,000, to increase the drop from the over three-year excessive touched earlier within the month. The information continued to point out robustness within the US labor market, according to the Federal Reserve’s rhetoric that there isn’t a rush to proceed reducing rates of interest.”
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Retail: “Farm Motion Requires an Investigation into Skyrocketing Egg Costs and Restricted Provide” [Farm Action]. “Whereas avian flu has been cited as the first driver of skyrocketing egg costs, its precise impression on manufacturing has been minimal. As an alternative, dominant egg producers—notably Cal-Maine Meals—have leveraged the disaster to lift costs, amass report earnings, and consolidate market energy. The gradual restoration in flock dimension, regardless of traditionally excessive costs, additional suggests coordinated efforts to limit provide and maintain inflated costs.” • Attention-grabbing…
Manufacturing: “Air India guidelines out extra Boeing jet orders for now, CEO says” [Reuters]. “Air India is holding off on exercising its excellent choices to purchase further Boeing (BA.N), opens new tab jets till the planemaker has cleared its backlog, CEO Campbell Wilson informed Reuters on Wednesday. ‘We don’t need to decide to something till we now have confidence of when it’s going to come back. And likewise, they (Boeing) don’t need to supply one thing till they’ve confidence of when it’s going to come back,’ Wilson stated in an interview in London. The previous state provider is within the midst of a multi-billion-dollar revamp within the face of established competitors, after Tata Group took it over greater than two years in the past.”
Manufacturing: “Tesla is suing drivers who complain about their automobiles after accidents – and successful” [Independent]. The deck: “Tesla proprietor Elon Musk is a self-described ‘free speech absolutist’.” And: “During the last 4 years, Tesla has sued at the very least six automobile house owners in China who had sudden car malfunctions, high quality complaints or accidents they claimed had been attributable to mechanical failures. The corporate has additionally sued at the very least six bloggers and two Chinese language media shops that wrote critically concerning the firm, in response to a evaluate of public courtroom paperwork and Chinese language media studies by The Related Press. Tesla received all eleven instances for which AP may decide the verdicts. Two judgments… are on enchantment. One case was settled out of courtroom. It’s not widespread follow for automakers — in China or elsewhere — to sue their clients. However Tesla has pioneered an aggressive authorized technique and leveraged the patronage of highly effective leaders in China’s ruling Communist Social gathering to silence critics, reap monetary rewards and restrict its accountability.” • Hmm.
The Bezzle: “Trump and His Household Earned Thousands and thousands From Trump Coin Whereas 810,000 Others Misplaced Cash: Report” [Binance]. “The early rise in worth of Donald Trump’s memecoin, $TRUMP , helped some traders to earn vital revenue whereas its crash induced greater than 810,000 crypto wallets to lose $2 billion mixed, in response to an evaluation reviewed by The New York Occasions. In the meantime, Trump and his household have introduced in roughly $100 million in buying and selling charges alone.”
Tech: The premise of the thread is that the poster’s little brother makes use of AI to generate passive earnings by creating ChatGPT slop for a product, turning that into video slop, then placing the video on YouTube, the place individuals who search on the product will discover your video and click on in your affililate hyperlink, producing a fee for you. I dunno. Possibly I ought to do that. Possibly we must always all do it. However what kills me is the product the poster chooses:
1/ Go to ChatGPT
When you’re on ChatGPT, paste this message:
“Record the highest 10 best-selling air air purifier on Amazon that value greater than $100.”
For this instance, I’m going to decide on the Dyson Air purifier Cool : pic.twitter.com/lSAencMcOW
— William | IA (@ia_william) February 12, 2025
That’s proper, an air air purifier. As if the Covid acutely aware neighborhood didn’t spend infinite quantities of time ranking air purifiers, pushing clear indoor air as coverage… after which this little multilegged parasitoid inserts his sucking mandibles into all that social capital and siphons it away. Possibly I ought to file it this underneath Civilizational Collapse
Tech: “Apple Intelligence’s largest downside isn’t the Intelligence–it’s Apple” [Macworld]. “The worst factor about AI is that since a lot of it springs from the idea of a text-based language mannequin, AI interfaces are usually empty textual content packing containers that you need to kind one thing into. I can’t imagine we’re again right here. That is severe pre-1984 pondering, 40 years after Apple put a stake within the coronary heart of the command-line interface. Giving customers an empty textual content field and anticipating them to know what to say to get the consequence they need is a colossal user-interface failure. An empty textual content field is merciless. (And no, having to fastidiously situation summary instructions by way of voice shouldn’t be different, neither is forcing customers to laboriously right mistaken output with further textual content entry.) The way forward for AI performance must be constructed on consumer interface design that gives easy visible instruments to step customers by the method.” • Not really easy…
Tech: “When AI says ‘kill’: People overtrust machines in life-or-death selections” [Study Finds]. ” New analysis from UC Merced and Penn State reveals that individuals are extremely prone to AI affect even in life-or-death conditions the place the AI overtly acknowledges its personal limitations. A sequence of experiments simulating drone warfare eventualities suggests we could also be falling too far on the aspect of machine deference, with doubtlessly harmful penalties…. The findings paint a regarding image of human susceptibility to AI affect, notably in conditions of uncertainty.” • That is nuts. The IDF desires — has purchased — AI that slaughters civilians. That’s not a bug, it’s a characteristic, and it’s precisely what a Silicon Valley overlord defending his bunker would need as nicely.
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In the present day’s Worry & Greed Index: 44 Worry (earlier shut: 44 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 44 (Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Feb 13 at 1:22:35 PM ET
Gallery
1916…
Horticultural panorama with a hilltop, 1916 #artbots #klimt pic.twitter.com/Tuj2xMbYq3
— Gustav Klimt (@artistgklimt) February 13, 2025
Information of the Wired
I’m not feeling wired at the moment.
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Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are wonderful! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From SK:
d
SK writes: “Right here’s our Satsuma mandarin, planted 33 years in the past, loaded, and ripening a bit early. It tends to have a two yr heavy/gentle fruit cycle, the “gap” is the place an overloaded department broke a couple of years in the past. To the left is a scrawny blood orange, and a Bearss (pr. Bierce) lime. What we don’t eat and share, we squeeze and freeze. My spouse has been making sorbet from each, served with vanilla ice cream, so refreshing in the summertime warmth, like a Creamsicle.”
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