By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Affected person readers, brunch ran disgracefully late at present, and so I’ll attempt to ship a not-disgracefully skinny Water Cooler, nevertheless it received’t be instantly. Within the meantime, speak amongst yourselves! –lambert
Chicken Music of the Day
Brown Thrasher, Sully Woodlands, Fairfax, Virginia, United States. I swear I hear an airplane, someplace within the combine.
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In Case You May Miss…
Treasury nominee Bessent below hearth?
RedNote’s second to cross?
Infantry in battle.
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Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
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Biden Administration
“Why Biden Might Matter” [David Leonhardt, New York Times]. “one main a part of Biden’s agenda has an honest probability of surviving. It was the concept animated a lot of the laws he signed — particularly, that the federal authorities ought to take a extra energetic function in each helping and regulating the personal sector than it did for a lot of the earlier half-century. This concept has but to accumulate a easy title. The historian Gary Gerstle has referred to as it the tip of the neoliberal order. Felicia Wong and her colleagues on the Roosevelt Institute, a liberal suppose tank, have used the time period ‘a brand new economics.’ Jake Sullivan, a high Biden adviser, has referred to it as a brand new consensus. I’ve described it as a part of a brand new centrism. The philosophy didn’t originate with Biden, however he meaningfully shifted the nation towards it, first as a candidate in 2020 after which as president. He moved the Democratic Occasion away from many years of assist for commerce liberalization and imposed tariffs on China. He pursued an industrial coverage to construct up sectors essential to nationwide safety (like semiconductors) or future prosperity (like clear vitality). And his administration was extra aggressive about restraining company energy than any in many years, blocking mergers, cracking down on ‘junk charges’ and regulating drug costs…. Trump will certainly undo main components of the Biden agenda, particularly on local weather change and a few points of company regulation. In different methods, although, Trump is a part of the shift away from neoliberalism. He romped by means of the 2016 Republican primaries partly as a result of he was extra hostile to commerce, China and cuts to Medicare and Social Safety than different Republican politicians. A few of Trump’s second-term nominees, together with for labor secretary and head of the Justice Division’s antitrust division, are hardly small-government neoliberals. Neither is Vice President-elect JD Vance.”
Trump Transition
“Treasury decide Scott Bessent and Trump transition group deny allegations that he averted taxes” [NBC News]. That makes him sensible. Extra: “In a brand new memo obtained by NBC Information, Senate Finance Democratic tax workers discovered that Scott Bessent averted over $950,000 of self-employment taxes. In a assessment of the Treasury Secretary nominee’s tax returns from 2021, 2022, and 2023 and his monetary disclosure type, the committee discovered that Bessent averted paying $950,182 of SECA taxes (a tax on web earnings from self-employment as a part of financing the social safety and medicare belief funds) and SALT taxes (state and native). Regardless of IRS and Tax Courtroom rulings that may require Bessent to pay SECA taxes, Bessent informed the committee he maintains his place, which is that he was not accountable for SECA taxes on revenue earned by means of his hedge fund, Key Sq. Group LP, since he was a ‘state legislation restricted companion.’ The committee argued Bessent was ‘actively concerned’ in his partnership on the hedge fund, and subsequently, violated the Division of Treasury’s personal insurance policies.” • I can’t converse to the tax points concerned. However absolutely that is for the IRS to determine, not the Committee?
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“‘Everybody’s attempting to kiss the ring’: Trump’s inauguration devours company money, smashing data” [Politico]. “Not solely are firms giving far bigger quantities than they did to Trump’s first inauguration — after they didn’t have a agency grasp of deal with misgivings concerning the mercurial politician — they’re doing so in a much more public vogue, saying the donations months earlier than they should be reported to federal regulators. ‘The stigma of a Trump donation, which was on the market to a point eight years in the past, is not there,” mentioned Brian Ballard, a longtime fundraiser for Trump who’s raised cash for the Presidential Inaugural Committee. ‘Who is aware of what’s going to occur two months from now? However for at present, up and down, company America is solidly pro-Trump.’”
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“Rep. Rick Crawford anticipated to function Home Intelligence chair” [Politico]. “Johnson on Wednesday eliminated former Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) in a transfer that shocked even some Republicans on the panel. Now he has informed people who he intends to exchange him with [Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.)], a low-key veteran of the Intel panel… Crawford is essentially the most senior Republican on the committee and considered as a much less hawkish decide than Turner. He additionally holds extra MAGA-friendly credentials — representing a deep purple district in Arkansas and voting towards Ukraine support final 12 months…. However Turner enraged the arduous proper over the chaotic reauthorization of a sweeping surveillance invoice final 12 months…. Johnson, who has sole discretion in selecting the panel’s chair, cited Trump as a motive for the ouster.” • Hmm.
Realignment and Legitimacy
[sigh]:
allegedly they’re dividing the rednote servers into mainland and foreigner subsequent week and individuals are making actually unhappy posts about it 🙁 pic.twitter.com/668O9Yfd6b
— 🥉 Pipkin Pippa 🔌🐰 Part-Join (@pipkinpippa) January 15, 2025
For a quick shining second, two hitherto totally unmixed social media populations — American, Chinese language — spontaneously interacting was the most important story going (and gave me some hope for humanity). It couldn’t final, sadly. (How unlucky that there was no main American politician with the flexibility to interpret — possibly for the strategic functions of the Democrat social gathering, if any — the interactions between Chinese language and American youngsters on social media for a wider viewers, based mostly on repeated, direct expertise. Oh, wait….)
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
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Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Search for the Helpers
CR field makers:
Although it’s wonderful we’re nonetheless making CR containers by hand, 5 years into the pandemic. What a market failure!
Maskstravaganza
They advocate when they need to mandate. However:
The Maryland Division of Well being is re-recommending common masking amongst different precautions attributable to rising hospitalizations for COVID and flu.
Should you’re in MD and have bother with medical doctors masking you possibly can inform them of this new advice. pic.twitter.com/QYsN840epg
— Covid Warning – XEC, KP.3.1.1, LP.8.1, MC.1, LF.7 (@CovidCaution) January 16, 2025
Vaccines
I feel[T]hese arrows are transferring within the mistaken path (apart from Alaska, Connecticut, and Maine, good job):
Simply extremely miserable that people spent so lengthy attempting to invent cures to ailments, succeeded towards the chances, and that progress is now being erased by a small variety of folks spreading misinformation. pic.twitter.com/Fq0Jn5AiI3
— Michael Thomas (@curious_founder) January 14, 2025
Measles are the “M” in MMR. In different phrases, the fundamentals are below assault, not exotics lately added to the schedule.
“They have been warned; Picks and Shovels Chapter One” [Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic]. “[I]t’s pure and proper that on this planet, there will probably be individuals who need to revisit the acquired knowledge and finest practices for the way we reside our lives, regulate our economic system, and arrange our society. However not a license to easily throw out the techniques we depend on. Positive, possibly they’re outdated or pointless, however possibly not. That’s the place ‘Chesterton’s Fence” is available in:
Allow us to say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected throughout a highway. The extra trendy kind of reformer goes gaily as much as it and says, “I don’t see the usage of this; allow us to clear it away.” To which the extra clever kind of reformer will do nicely to reply: “Should you don’t see the usage of it, I actually received’t allow you to clear it away. Go away and suppose. Then, when you possibly can come again and inform me that you simply do see the usage of it, I could mean you can destroy it.”
In different phrases, it’s not sufficient to say, “This precept will get in the best way of one thing I need to do, so let’s throw it out as a result of I’m fairly positive the inconvenience I’m experiencing is worse than the implications of getting rid of this precept.” It’s worthwhile to have a concept of how you’ll stop the harms the precept protects us from when you tear it down…. When RFK Jr kills your children with measles or completely disables them with polio, he doesn’t get to say “I used to be simply inquiring as to the efficacy of a longstanding measure, as is true and correct.” He was informed why the vaccine fence was there, and he got here up with objectively very silly the explanation why that didn’t matter, after which he killed your children. He was warned.” And the identical with Invoice Clinton and Glass-Steagall. Ditto crytpo.
Transmission: Covid
About fashions:
For this reason I give choice to knowledge collection which have run a very long time, ideally because the starting of the pandemic: They make the baseline clear. However extra importantly, with Gregory, I deprecate being reactive (this goes for private follow and for an infection management). Set up your protocol and persist with it. If — and by “if” I imply “when” —
An infection Management
HOCL sounds actually fascinating; I wasn’t conscious:
I simply discovered some cool information:
Outdated information:Hypochlorous acid (HOCl) is a extremely efficient antimicrobial agent with a impartial to barely acidic pH (4-6), making it safer for pores and skin and surfaces whereas sustaining broad-spectrum exercise. In distinction, bleach is extremely alkaline (pH…
— Dr. Sean Mullen (@drseanmullen) January 16, 2025
And this lengthy thread:
See the highlighted portion. Nukit is an efficient account, and granted, they’re quoting the claims of one other, however aren’t among the highlighted claims a little bit over-enthusiastic? Like “tumor suppression”?
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TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts
Wastewater
This week[1] CDC January 10
Final week[2] CDC (till subsequent week):
Variants [3] CDC December 21
Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC January 4
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, knowledge January 14:
Nationwide [6] CDC Janurary 9:
Positivity
Nationwide[7] Walgreens January 13:
Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic January 4:
Vacationers Knowledge
Positivity[9] CDC December 23:
Variants[10] CDC December 23
Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC January 4:
Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC January 4:
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new at present; all others are usually not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Seeing extra purple and extra orange, however nothing new at main hubs.
[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has carried out an awesome job normalizing successive waves of an infection.
[4] (ED) A bit uptick.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Undoubtedly jumped.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.
[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward development since, nicely, Thanksgiving.
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Leveling out.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Positivity is new, however variants haven’t but been launched.
[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.
[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.
Stats Watch
Employment Scenario: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “Preliminary jobless claims within the US rose by 14,000 from the earlier week to 217,000 within the interval ending January eleventh, 2024, firmly above market expectations of 210,000 to mark a pointy bounce from the upwardly revised, 11-month low touched within the first week of January.”
Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index within the US climbed to 44.3 in January 2025, its highest since April 2021, from a revised studying of -10.9 in December and higher than market forecasts of -5. That is the index’s largest month-to-month improve since June 2020….”
Retail: “U.S. Retail Gross sales” [Trading Economics]. “Retail gross sales within the US elevated 0.4% month-over-month in December 2024, the least in 4 months, in comparison with an upwardly revised 0.8% rise in November and beneath forecasts of 0.6%. Regardless of the slowdown, the figures proceed to level to a sturdy shopper spending.”
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Tech: I suppose Boeing’s man wasn’t accessible?
Suchir Balaji labored as an engineer for Sam Altman constructing AI, till he determined that Altman was committing crimes. Balaji grew to become a whistleblower, and shortly after was discovered lifeless in his condo. California authorities declare it was suicide. Crime scene photographs clearly present a… pic.twitter.com/bVbiP8zShy
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) January 15, 2025
It’s so arduous to seek out respectable assist as of late!
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Immediately’s Concern & Greed Index: 30 Concern (earlier shut: 29 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 30 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jan 16 at 1:44:27 PM ET.
Musical Interlude
Prince?!
Prince performing a Led Zeppelin basic, Complete Lotta Love, reside At The Aladdin, Las Vegas, in 2002.
He was an unbelievable musician and a really underrated guitar participant! pic.twitter.com/fMhhYkRfQi
— Rock’n Roll of All (@rocknrollofall) January 14, 2025
Zeitgeist Watch
“The Governance Failures That Fed the Los Angeles Wildfires” [Wall Street Journal]. “There’s no disputing Mom Nature’s main function within the devastation. The Santa Ana winds answerable for the wildfires start north and east of Los Angeles within the Nice Basin, which incorporates massive sections of Utah and Nevada. As these winds journey south and west, coursing by means of the canyons and arroyos of Southern California, they drop in elevation and turn into hotter and dryer. That is nature, not man-made local weather change, at work. It’s been taking place since lengthy earlier than Los Angeles was settled. What’s modified isn’t the predictability of the fires however somewhat the priorities and competence of these answerable for preserving folks secure. Has the underbrush that fuels the fires been cleared? Have the forests been thinned? Are the reservoirs full and operational?… By Mr. Simon’s estimates, there are two colleges of thought on what’s enjoying out in his state proper now. “One is that this was actually uncommon, and no one may have foreseen it. And the opposite college of thought, which I’m a member of, is that you may’t have an entire reservoir that’s utterly dry in a extremely populated space with an extended historical past of fires. There’s a public-policy failure someplace right here. There’s a direct connection between the negligence on the governmental stage—state, native, no matter—and lots of human struggling.” The larger drawback, nevertheless, could be the insularity of the state’s political institution. Mr. Newsom and Ms. Bass are liberal Democrats, as are a lot of the lawmakers in Los Angeles and Sacramento. Republicans haven’t received a statewide race in California since 2006″ • Studying this fastidiously, I can agree with all of it besides. That is nature, not man-made local weather change. First, the true property business, which websites and soecs the homes, isn’t a part of “nature” (modulo an especially holistic definition of nature). Second, I don’t suppose something is exempt from “man-made local weather change”, which could, for instance, trigger an out-of-season Santa Ana. However at the least we’ve gor some pondering in layers, even when from the son of William Simon (Nixon’s Treasury secretary). This appears to not be paywalled, and it’s value a learn.
Guillotine Watch
“Neil Gaiman denies sexual assault allegations: ‘I don’t settle for there was any abuse’” [Los Angeles Times]. “Eight ladies accused the 64-year-old British scribe of assault, abuse and coercion in an article printed Monday” (posted right here). Gaiman: ” I’m removed from an ideal particular person, however I’ve by no means engaged in non-consensual sexual exercise with anybody. Ever.” • On reconsideration, the angle I got here away with from the Monday article was how very badly the somewhat wealthy Gaiman and his spouse Amanda Palmer handled the servants; withheld cost, prpmises not saved…. “They have been careless folks, Tom and Daisy.”
“Billionaire Robert Miller accused of being secret pedophile who preyed on women as younger as 11” [Daily Mail]. “Robert Miller, 81, allegedly paid minors for intercourse between 1994 and 2006 and recruited them with the help of workers from his firm, Future Electronics. This week, Quebec Superior Courtroom Decide Catherine Piché dominated {that a} class motion launched by three of Miller’s alleged victims may proceed. ‘These extraordinarily critical acts allegedly occurred over a number of years, after they have been between the ages of 11 and 17,’ she wrote in her resolution, in response to CBA. ‘The court docket mustn’t, at this stage, contemplate the deserves of the dispute and it ought to take the information as confirmed, except they seem unbelievable or manifestly inaccurate.’ The category motion has been launched by three ladies who allege they have been victims of Miller, and in addition targets Future Electronics. If the category motion is profitable, Miller might be ordered at hand over as much as $150million in damages. Lawyer for the plaintiffs Jeff Orenstein informed the court docket he’d been approached by 51 alleged victims.” • 51? That’s loads. So is 8.
Information of the Wired
Thread from historian Alexander Burns on his new e book, Infantry in Battle, 1733-1783:
See the highlighted portion on the finish. I ponder if that’s true in Ukraine at present? Or, for that matter, Gaza?
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Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are effective! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! In order for you your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From mrsyk:
Mrsyk writes: “This plum tomato has been frozen by means of a pair occasions now. What a colour.”
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This entry was posted in Water Cooler on January 16, 2025.
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