Monitoring purposes; Sold 4/9/25 at 5456.90= gain 9.52%; Long SPX 4/8/25 at 4982.77.
Our gain 1/1/24 to 12/31/24 = 29.28%; SPX gain 23.67%
Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%
Monitoring purposes : Sold long 4/11/25 at 49.66 = gain 21.33%.
We ended up 29.28% for 2024; SPX up 23.67% for the year. Most likely the April 9 high will be tested and if tested on lighter volume will suggests resistance. April 9 volume came in at 241 million shares, so the test most likely will be on lighter volume which suggests resistance. If the can’t get through the 4/9 high, it will reverse and attempt to take out the previous low which is also on April 9.
The April 9 low comes in near 493 SPY. Don’t see a good setup for the moment. Intermediate term the SPY appears to be building a base and the second half of the year is starting to look favorable.
The top window is the 10-day TRIN, which stands at 1.08 and neutral; needs to be near 1.20 or higher for a bull case. The 10-day TRIN of 1.20 shows panic and panic forms near lows. Next lower window is the 5-day TRIN with a reading of 1.15; leans bullish; next lower window is the 2-day TRIN with a reading of 1.04 neutral; and bottom window is the 3-day TRIN with a reading of .99 neutral.
We keep showing this chart as this chart will help to define the next low. We are waiting for panic to form in the market, which is identified when the trin closes above 1.20, which in turn will help define the next low. Of the moving averages of the TRIN, the 10-day TRIN (two weeks of trading) is the most important as it is the longest timeframe (longer time frames rule the shorter time frames).
The “Three Drives to a top” appears to be working out. It is said that “Three Drives to a top” is not a top pattern but rather a “Time out in an uptrend”. This pattern has a downside target to where the pattern began which in the current case would have a price projection near 39.00.
From the 39.00 range it would be expected for the next rally to begin and most likely to new highs. We have presented chart studies over the last several months that a multi-year rally is possible in the gold stocks.
