Pantheon Macroeconomics sees the CPI data consistent with a 0.23% increase in the core PCE to be released later this month. The PPI data will add to that you when it is released tomorrow. Their view is that the July CPI won’t significantly shift market expectations around Fed easing; sentiment for a rate cut remains intact.
That is not too bad. It is still above the 2% in target. Meanwhile Wall Street Journal’s tomorrow’s is saying that the:
“September rate cut could of been derailed by CPI print today, and the July CPI wasn’t a “no inflation” reading, but it wasn’t hot enough to stop a September cut.”
In other observations, coming off the major revisions in the US employment, the chatter is increasingly focused on “trusting the data” versus “THE data”. If it is garbage in/garbage – or even the perception – what good is it?
Suddenly, the data which was admittedly prescribed by Fed chair Powell as the gold standard, is now something less.
President Trump nominated E.J. Antoni, a Heritage Foundation economist and vocal critic of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), to lead the agency after firing Commissioner Erika McEntarfer earlier this month. McEntarfer, a respected career economist confirmed in 2024, was dismissed following BLS data revisions showing May and June job growth was 258,000 lower than initially reported — a move that drew bipartisan outrage.
The nomination reflects Trump’s push to install allies at the helm of agencies producing key economic data on jobs, wages, and prices.
