Nvidia (NASDAQ:) fell 6% on Tuesday, January seventh, 2025, after Jensen Huang’s seemingly optimistic CES speech, which appeared to concentrate on coming merchandise for the GPU large.
Possibly the larger fear is the 347 million shares traded on NVDA yesterday, versus the 218 million common every day quantity, for a 59% enhance in quantity, to the draw back.
Right here’s a fast have a look at the ahead EPS and income estimates for NVDA in addition to some math on the revisions:
NVDA EPS Estimate Revisions:
Supply: LSEG
NVDA is scheduled to report their fiscal This fall ’25 in February ’25. Per Briefing.com, NVDA will report their numbers on Feb ’26 ’25, for the 12 months ended January ’25).
Let’s do some fast math – fiscal ’25:
One 12 months in the past, NVDA was projected to earn $2.08 in fiscal ’25. yesterday that EPS estimate is $2.95 for a constructive revision of 42% within the final 12 months;
In Feb ’24, NVDA was anticipated to earn $2.44 in fiscal ’25, versus yesterday’s estimate of $2.95 for a constructive revision of 21% within the final 11 months;
In Could ’24, NVDA was anticipated to earn $2.70 in fiscal ’25 versus yesterday’s estimate of $2.95 for a constructive revision of 9% within the final 8 months;
In August ’24, NVDA was anticipated to earn $2.82 in fiscal ’25, versus yesterday’s estimate of $2.95 for a constructive revision of 5% within the final 5 months;
In November ’24, NVDA was anticipated to earn $2.95 versus yesterday’s estimate of $2.95 for a flat estimate the final 2 months;
Fiscal ’26 EPS estimates
For fiscal ’26, one 12 months in the past the EPS estimate was $2.3, whereas yesterday, the fiscal ’26 estimate is $4.43, for a constructive revision of 82%;
In Feb ’24, the fiscal ’26 estimate was $2.98, versus the fiscal ’26 estimate yesterday of $4.43 for a constructive revision of 49%;
In Could ’24, the fiscal ’26 estimate was $3.57 versus the fiscal ’26 estimate yesterday of $4.43 for a constructive revision of 24%;
In Aug ’24, the fiscal ’26 estimate was $3.97 versus the fiscal ’26 estimate yesterday of $4.43 for a constructive revision of 12%;
In Nov ’24, the fiscal ’26 estimate of $4.43 is flat the final two months with yesterday’s estimate of $4.43;
(Readers can discover all of the EPS estimates referenced within the above s/sheet if you wish to confirm the maths.)
NVDA Income Revisions:
One 12 months in the past, the fiscal ’25 income estimate $93.4 billion, versus the fiscal ’25 estimate yesterday of $129.3 bl, for a 38% constructive revision the final 12 months;
In Feb ’24, the fiscal ’25 income estimate was $109.4 bl, versus yesterday’s $129.3 bl for an 18% constructive revision;
In Could ’24, the fiscal ’25 income estimate was $120.3 billion, versus the $129.3 bl estimate yesterday, for a 7.5% constructive revision;
In August ’24, the fiscal ’25 income estimate was $124.8 bl, versus yesterday’s $129.3 billion for a 4% constructive revision;
Since Nov ’24, the fiscal ’25 income estimate of $129.308 bl, is actually flat with yesterday’s $129.3 billion;
NVDA studies February, Could, August and November yearly.
For each EPS and income estimates, as we moved via fiscal ’25 (calendar ’24 basically), the upside revisions to EPS and income estimates obtained progressively smaller.
Right here’s one other approach to have a look at this utilizing income estimates: because the February ’24 income estimate is after the most recent quarter earnings launch and thus all analyst estimate revisions are “in” the fashions, let’s observe the revisions between January – February ’24, April – Could ’24, July – August ’24, after which October – November ’24:
Between the months of Jan – Feb ’24, the fiscal ’25 income estimate revision elevated 17%;
Between the months of April – Could ’24, the fiscal ’25 income estimate revision elevated 7.5%;
Between the months of July – August ’24, the fiscal ’25 income estimate revision elevated 3.4%;
Between the months of October – November ’24, the fiscal ’25 income estimate elevated 2.9%;
Readers can see how income revisions for fiscal ’25 grew to become progressively much less “strong” as calendar ’24 or fiscal ’25 progressed.
For a momentum inventory like Nvidia, this issues, however the diploma it issues, is topic to debate.
Conclusion:
NVDA’s fiscal ’25 ends on January 31 ’25. Does the waning revision momentum have implications for fiscal ’26?
All of it is determined by steering.
This weblog has a really small place in NVDA and semi’s taken the final week of calendar ’24, simply because technical help was being examined, and sentiment appeared to have turned damaging.
Given the media frenzy surrounding it and its widespread holdings, it’s robust to carry any sizable place within the inventory.
Don’t construe this weblog put up as a bearish or bullish put up. I’m simply laying out the numbers. Extra will be completed, and perhaps this might be up to date after NVDA’s February ’25 earnings launch.
Disclaimer: None of that is is recommendation or a suggestion, however solely an opinion. Previous efficiency isn’t any assure of future outcomes. Investing can and does contain the lack of principal, even for brief intervals of time. All estimates are sourced from LSEG and are present as of 1/7/25. The above data could or might not be up to date and if up to date, might not be completed in a well timed style.
