For these new to our Elliott Wave-based analyses and as a reminder to our common readers, we have now been monitoring an ending diagonal (ED) sample for the for over a month. In our earlier , we discovered that:
“the index has superior to the minimal upside goal [123.60% @ NDX21509] for the third wave extension inside an ending diagonal sample. Nonetheless, whereas the draw back threat is thus presently growing and acceptable actions ought to be taken, e.g., increase stops and take partial earnings, till we see at the very least a break under NDX21200, we are able to nonetheless permit for increased costs … the purple 138.20% extension at NDX21868… A break under that degree, particularly the (orang) third warning degree at NDX20600, will inform us that the purple W-iv to ideally NDX20000-20300 is underway.”
Quick-forward: After our replace, the index didn’t break under NDX21200 however continued to NDX22133 by December 16, thus barely exceeding the $21868 degree. Nonetheless, FED-Wednesday, December 18th, erased the prior ten days of beneficial properties. Following the continued rally, we had already raised the warning ranges for our Premium Members to NDX21600, and thus, no hurt was executed.
The index bottomed on December 20 at NDX20913 and has rallied to the perfect inexperienced W-b goal zone, from which it was rejected right this moment. See Determine 1 under:
Determine 1. NDX every day chart with detailed Elliott Wave rely and technical indicators
Thus, the anticipated purple W-iii prime got here and went, and the index ought to now be within the purple W-iv. Given it topped exactly within the splendid bounce (inexperienced W-b) goal zone, we anticipate it to succeed in NDX20300-600 for the inexperienced W-c of the purple W-iv, as proven. Be aware that these ranges align with what we already anticipated in late November (see ), displaying the forecasting energy one can get pleasure from utilizing the EW.
Thus, contingent on holding at the very least under yesterday’s excessive at NDX21837, and particularly under the latest all-time excessive at NDX22133, we should always anticipate the index to backside across the NDX20300-600 degree for the purple W-iv earlier than it could possibly stage the following extra vital, purple W-v rally, to ideally NDX22825-23400.
