Bitcoin
(BTC) price faces mounting pressure as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes
warns of a potential drop to $100,000, citing macroeconomic headwinds that
could trigger significant corrections in the cryptocurrency market. The
prediction comes after Hayes liquidated over $13 million in crypto
assets, signaling his bearish stance on short-term market conditions.
The
forecast came as Bitcoin had been falling for six consecutive sessions,
dropping to $112,000. However, BTC is continuing its rebound from Sunday and is
climbing to nearly $115,000.
Hayes’ bearish
outlook stems from deteriorating economic fundamentals. The former
BitMEX CEO points to the disappointing July Non-Farm Payrolls report, which
showed only 73,000 new jobs added versus expectations of
110,000. This economic weakness, combined with sluggish credit
growth across major economies, has prompted Hayes to take defensive
action.
United States Non Farm Payrolls. Source: BLS, Trading Economics
“No
major econ is creating enough credit fast enough to boost nominal GDP,”
Hayes explained on X. “So BTC tests $100k, ETH tests $3k.” His
warning comes as Bitcoin trades around $114,730, having already
declined 7.7% from its July high of $123,000.
Y? US Tariff bill coming due in 3q … at least the mrkt believes that after NFP print. No major econ is creating enough credit fast enough to boost nominal gdp. So $BTC tests $100k, $ETH tests $3k. Come see my @WebX_Asia Tokyo keynote Aug 25 for more info. Back to the beach. https://t.co/zuHlwgQKC7
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) August 2, 2025
Hayes’
portfolio moves speak volumes about his conviction. The Maelstrom Fund
chief investment officer sold $8.32 million worth of ETH, $4.62 million of
Ethena, and $414,700 of Pepe. His wallet now holds $22.95
million in USDC stablecoin, representing a significant cash position ahead
of anticipated volatility.
BTC Technical Analysis
Supports Bearish Scenario
From my
technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin’s six consecutive days of declines
brought prices to the $112,000 level and the 50-day exponential moving
average. As I view it, this confluence with the 23.6%
Fibonacci retracement creates a critical support zone that has been
tested multiple times since 2025.
I
observe the Sunday
recovery showing a 0.5% gain continued into Monday, confirming the
importance of this technical level. However, in my analysis, if
this support fails, the next major target becomes the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement just above $104,000, coinciding with local support/resistance
from the May-June breakout.
My
primary downside target remains the psychological $100,000 level, which aligns with late June lows,
the 200-day exponential moving average, and an expanding support
zone extending to $98,000 where the 50% Fibonacci retracement lies. I
believe this area likely contains significant buy orders from
institutions and retail investors seeking lower entry points.
How low can Bitcoin go? Technical analysis of BTC/USDT chart. Source: Tradingview.com
In my
view, a break below
this crucial support zone would shift medium-term sentiment decisively bearish,
potentially targeting the April lows around $75,000 where I
expect substantial accumulation orders would create natural support.
Current Market Dynamics
and Recovery Signs
Despite
Hayes’ warnings, Bitcoin has shown resilience in recent trading
sessions. According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin currently costs $114,730,
rising 0.9% in the last 24 hours. Most major cryptocurrencies
are posting rebounds alongside Bitcoin, with Ethereum returning above
$3,560 and gaining nearly 3%.
The
recovery from weekend lows demonstrates the market’s ability to find support at
critical technical levels. Sunday morning saw major cryptocurrencies
test monthly minimums before recovering strongly in the second half of
the day and maintaining gains into the weekly close.
Bitcion price today. Source: CoinMarketCap.com
Other Analysts Warning of
$100K Test
Hayes isn’t
alone in his cautious outlook. Several prominent analysts have
highlighted the possibility of Bitcoin testing $100,000 or lower. Trading
analyst Pentoshi, known for calling the 2021 bull run peak, is preparing
to “load up” on Bitcoin if it drops below $100,000, specifically
targeting the $94,000 area for aggressive accumulation.
Michael
Van De Poppe identifies the $110,000-$112,000 zone as a strong accumulation
area, expecting
Bitcoin to trade higher over the next 6-12 months while warning that failure to
hold support could send BTC toward $103,190.
Meanwhile,
some analysts see current levels as a buying opportunity.
CryptoGoos notes that Bitcoin volatility nears historic lows,
suggesting a potential breakout, while veteran trader Peter Brandt
believes in a possible cycle top between $125,000 and $150,000 by Q3 2025.
Analyst
Price Target
Rationale
Timeframe
Arthur Hayes
$100,000
Macro
headwinds, credit tightening, tariff concerns
Q3 2025
Pentoshi
$94,000 accumulation zone
Technical correction, buying opportunity
Short-term
Michael Van De Poppe
$103,190 if support fails
Support break scenario
Near-term
Peter Brandt
Cycle top $125K-$150K
Traditional cycle analysis
Q3 2025
Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone
$10,000 worst case
Regulatory/adoption concerns
Long-term bear case
Institutional vs. Retail
Perspectives
The debate
over Bitcoin’s trajectory reflects broader disagreement between institutional
and retail perspectives. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas argues
that Bitcoin has experienced “much less volatility and no vomit-inducing
drawdowns” since BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF filing in June 2023.
This guy gets it. We’ve been saying same thing. Since BlackRock filing Bitcoin is up like 250% with much less volatility and no vomit-inducing drawdowns. This has helped it attract even bigger fish and gives it fighting chance to be adopted as currency. Downside is prob no more… https://t.co/0ECd5XevcO
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 26, 2025
Mitchell
Askew from Blockware Solutions adds: “The days of parabolic bull markets and
devastating bear markets are over”. This institutional view suggests
that ETF inflows and corporate treasury adoption have
fundamentally changed Bitcoin’s volatility profile.
BTC/USD looks like two entirely different assets before and after the ETF
The days of parabolic bull markets and devastating bear markets are over
BTC is going to $1,000,000 over the next 10 years through a consistent oscillation between “pump” and “consolidate”
It will bore… pic.twitter.com/JlyKpLei65
— Mitchell Askew ✝️🇺🇸🌞 (@MitchellHODL) July 25, 2025
However,
Hayes’ macro-focused analysis challenges this narrative, emphasizing that traditional
economic cycles still influence cryptocurrency markets. His focus on credit
creation, tariff policies, and employment data suggests that Bitcoin
remains vulnerable to broader economic pressures.
Bitcoin Price Predictions:
Expert Forecasts for 2025-2026
Source
2025 Prediction
2026 Prediction
Notes
Standard Chartered
$200,000
$500,000 by 2028
Geoff
Kendrick’s institutional adoption thesis
Changelly
$109,046 average
$163,582 average
Conservative range: $105,781-$110,310
Digital Coin Price
$223,028 average
N/A
Bullish range: $96,511-$236,486
Binance
$114,229
$119,941
Platform’s algorithmic prediction
CoinCodex
$129,090 average
N/A
Range: $109,848-$179,948
Cathie Wood (ARK)
$700,000-$750,000 by 2030
N/A
Bull case: $1.5M by 2030
The wide
range of predictions reflects fundamental disagreement about Bitcoin’s
trajectory. Bulls point to institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and
supply constraints from the recent halving. Bears like Hayes focus
on macroeconomic headwinds, credit tightening, and potential policy
changes.
You may also like: New Ethereum Price Prediction Targets $17K by 2026. Could ETH Gain as Much as 350%?
Why Is Bitcoin Price Going
Down? Macroeconomic Headwinds Driving Bearish Sentiment
Hayes’
analysis centers on three key macroeconomic factors. First,
the disappointing July jobs report signals potential economic
weakness that could reduce risk appetite. Second, sluggish credit
growth across major economies limits the monetary expansion that
historically drives Bitcoin prices higher.
Third, renewed
tariff concerns following President Trump’s trade policies create
additional uncertainty. The U.S. initiated new tariffs on 69 countries,
adding to concerns about global economic disruption. Hayes specifically
mentions a “US Tariff bill coming due in 3Q” as a
catalyst for market stress.
These
factors combine to create what Hayes sees as an unfavorable environment
for risk assets. His prediction that “BTC tests $100k, ETH
tests $3k” reflects this macro-driven bearish outlook rather than
technical analysis alone.
Risk Management and
Investment Implications
For
investors, Hayes’ warning highlights the importance of risk management
in volatile markets. His decision to convert over $13 million to
stablecoins demonstrates how even crypto bulls adjust positions based
on changing conditions.
The $100,000
level represents an 18.7% correction from recent highs, which would be
significant but not unprecedented for Bitcoin. Historical analysis shows
Bitcoin has experienced corrections of 84% (2017-2018) and 70% (2022),
making Hayes’ prediction relatively modest by crypto standards.
Investors
should consider that multiple support levels exist between current
prices and $100,000. The 50-day EMA around $112,000, the $110,000
psychological level, and various Fibonacci retracements provide
potential buying opportunities for those sharing Hayes’ longer-term bullish
outlook.
Bitcoin’s
current price action reflects the ongoing battle between institutional
adoption narratives and traditional economic cycles. While Arthur Hayes’
$100,000 prediction may seem bearish, it represents a relatively modest
correction in the context of Bitcoin’s historical volatility. The
confluence of technical support levels around $100,000 suggests this area would
likely attract significant buying interest, potentially setting the stage for
the next leg higher once macroeconomic uncertainties resolve.
Check also my XRP analysis: XRP Price Will Hit $9 as Analysts Predict 200% Surge by September 2025
Bitcoin News FAQ
How Low Is Bitcoin Going
to Drop?
Based
on Arthur Hayes’ analysis and my technical research, Bitcoin could
test the $100,000 psychological support level, representing
an 18.7% correction from recent highs. My technical
analysis identifies key support zones at $104,000 (38.2%
Fibonacci retracement) and the primary target of $100,000
where the 200-day exponential moving average converges with late June lows.
If this critical support fails, I expect potential downside
to $75,000 (April lows) where substantial accumulation would
likely occur.
How Low Can Bitcoin Go in
2025?
In my
view, Bitcoin’s
downside in 2025 is limited by strong institutional support and technical
levels. While Hayes warns of a $100,000 test due to macro headwinds,
most analysts maintain bullish long-term outlooks. Pentoshi targets the
$94,000 area for aggressive accumulation, while Michael Van De
Poppe sees $103,190 as a worst-case scenario. Historical context shows
Bitcoin’s previous corrections of 84% (2017-2018) and 70% (2022),
making current predictions relatively modest.
What Is the Reason Bitcoin
Is Going Down?
Hayes
identifies three primary factors driving Bitcoin’s decline: the disappointing July
Non-Farm Payrolls report showing only 73,000 new jobs, sluggish
credit growth across major economies limiting nominal GDP growth, and renewed
tariff concerns with the U.S. tariff bill coming due in Q3. These
macroeconomic headwinds reduce appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Additionally, my technical analysis shows Bitcoin rose over
60% from April lows to July highs with only 8% correction,
suggesting a healthy pullback was overdue.
Will BTC Rise Again?
Multiple
factors support Bitcoin’s recovery potential. Institutional adoption continues with Bloomberg
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noting “much less volatility” since
BlackRock’s ETF filing. Standard Chartered maintains a $200,000
target for 2025, while Changelly forecasts $109,046 average. In
my technical view, the $100,000-$98,000 support zone contains
significant buy orders from institutions and retail investors. Even
bearish analysts like Pentoshi plan to “load up” below
$100,000, suggesting strong demand at lower levels would fuel the next
rally.
Bitcoin
(BTC) price faces mounting pressure as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes
warns of a potential drop to $100,000, citing macroeconomic headwinds that
could trigger significant corrections in the cryptocurrency market. The
prediction comes after Hayes liquidated over $13 million in crypto
assets, signaling his bearish stance on short-term market conditions.
The
forecast came as Bitcoin had been falling for six consecutive sessions,
dropping to $112,000. However, BTC is continuing its rebound from Sunday and is
climbing to nearly $115,000.
Hayes’ bearish
outlook stems from deteriorating economic fundamentals. The former
BitMEX CEO points to the disappointing July Non-Farm Payrolls report, which
showed only 73,000 new jobs added versus expectations of
110,000. This economic weakness, combined with sluggish credit
growth across major economies, has prompted Hayes to take defensive
action.
United States Non Farm Payrolls. Source: BLS, Trading Economics
“No
major econ is creating enough credit fast enough to boost nominal GDP,”
Hayes explained on X. “So BTC tests $100k, ETH tests $3k.” His
warning comes as Bitcoin trades around $114,730, having already
declined 7.7% from its July high of $123,000.
Y? US Tariff bill coming due in 3q … at least the mrkt believes that after NFP print. No major econ is creating enough credit fast enough to boost nominal gdp. So $BTC tests $100k, $ETH tests $3k. Come see my @WebX_Asia Tokyo keynote Aug 25 for more info. Back to the beach. https://t.co/zuHlwgQKC7
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) August 2, 2025
Hayes’
portfolio moves speak volumes about his conviction. The Maelstrom Fund
chief investment officer sold $8.32 million worth of ETH, $4.62 million of
Ethena, and $414,700 of Pepe. His wallet now holds $22.95
million in USDC stablecoin, representing a significant cash position ahead
of anticipated volatility.
BTC Technical Analysis
Supports Bearish Scenario
From my
technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin’s six consecutive days of declines
brought prices to the $112,000 level and the 50-day exponential moving
average. As I view it, this confluence with the 23.6%
Fibonacci retracement creates a critical support zone that has been
tested multiple times since 2025.
I
observe the Sunday
recovery showing a 0.5% gain continued into Monday, confirming the
importance of this technical level. However, in my analysis, if
this support fails, the next major target becomes the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement just above $104,000, coinciding with local support/resistance
from the May-June breakout.
My
primary downside target remains the psychological $100,000 level, which aligns with late June lows,
the 200-day exponential moving average, and an expanding support
zone extending to $98,000 where the 50% Fibonacci retracement lies. I
believe this area likely contains significant buy orders from
institutions and retail investors seeking lower entry points.
How low can Bitcoin go? Technical analysis of BTC/USDT chart. Source: Tradingview.com
In my
view, a break below
this crucial support zone would shift medium-term sentiment decisively bearish,
potentially targeting the April lows around $75,000 where I
expect substantial accumulation orders would create natural support.
Current Market Dynamics
and Recovery Signs
Despite
Hayes’ warnings, Bitcoin has shown resilience in recent trading
sessions. According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin currently costs $114,730,
rising 0.9% in the last 24 hours. Most major cryptocurrencies
are posting rebounds alongside Bitcoin, with Ethereum returning above
$3,560 and gaining nearly 3%.
The
recovery from weekend lows demonstrates the market’s ability to find support at
critical technical levels. Sunday morning saw major cryptocurrencies
test monthly minimums before recovering strongly in the second half of
the day and maintaining gains into the weekly close.
Bitcion price today. Source: CoinMarketCap.com
Other Analysts Warning of
$100K Test
Hayes isn’t
alone in his cautious outlook. Several prominent analysts have
highlighted the possibility of Bitcoin testing $100,000 or lower. Trading
analyst Pentoshi, known for calling the 2021 bull run peak, is preparing
to “load up” on Bitcoin if it drops below $100,000, specifically
targeting the $94,000 area for aggressive accumulation.
Michael
Van De Poppe identifies the $110,000-$112,000 zone as a strong accumulation
area, expecting
Bitcoin to trade higher over the next 6-12 months while warning that failure to
hold support could send BTC toward $103,190.
Meanwhile,
some analysts see current levels as a buying opportunity.
CryptoGoos notes that Bitcoin volatility nears historic lows,
suggesting a potential breakout, while veteran trader Peter Brandt
believes in a possible cycle top between $125,000 and $150,000 by Q3 2025.
Analyst
Price Target
Rationale
Timeframe
Arthur Hayes
$100,000
Macro
headwinds, credit tightening, tariff concerns
Q3 2025
Pentoshi
$94,000 accumulation zone
Technical correction, buying opportunity
Short-term
Michael Van De Poppe
$103,190 if support fails
Support break scenario
Near-term
Peter Brandt
Cycle top $125K-$150K
Traditional cycle analysis
Q3 2025
Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone
$10,000 worst case
Regulatory/adoption concerns
Long-term bear case
Institutional vs. Retail
Perspectives
The debate
over Bitcoin’s trajectory reflects broader disagreement between institutional
and retail perspectives. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas argues
that Bitcoin has experienced “much less volatility and no vomit-inducing
drawdowns” since BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF filing in June 2023.
This guy gets it. We’ve been saying same thing. Since BlackRock filing Bitcoin is up like 250% with much less volatility and no vomit-inducing drawdowns. This has helped it attract even bigger fish and gives it fighting chance to be adopted as currency. Downside is prob no more… https://t.co/0ECd5XevcO
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 26, 2025
Mitchell
Askew from Blockware Solutions adds: “The days of parabolic bull markets and
devastating bear markets are over”. This institutional view suggests
that ETF inflows and corporate treasury adoption have
fundamentally changed Bitcoin’s volatility profile.
BTC/USD looks like two entirely different assets before and after the ETF
The days of parabolic bull markets and devastating bear markets are over
BTC is going to $1,000,000 over the next 10 years through a consistent oscillation between “pump” and “consolidate”
It will bore… pic.twitter.com/JlyKpLei65
— Mitchell Askew ✝️🇺🇸🌞 (@MitchellHODL) July 25, 2025
However,
Hayes’ macro-focused analysis challenges this narrative, emphasizing that traditional
economic cycles still influence cryptocurrency markets. His focus on credit
creation, tariff policies, and employment data suggests that Bitcoin
remains vulnerable to broader economic pressures.
Bitcoin Price Predictions:
Expert Forecasts for 2025-2026
Source
2025 Prediction
2026 Prediction
Notes
Standard Chartered
$200,000
$500,000 by 2028
Geoff
Kendrick’s institutional adoption thesis
Changelly
$109,046 average
$163,582 average
Conservative range: $105,781-$110,310
Digital Coin Price
$223,028 average
N/A
Bullish range: $96,511-$236,486
Binance
$114,229
$119,941
Platform’s algorithmic prediction
CoinCodex
$129,090 average
N/A
Range: $109,848-$179,948
Cathie Wood (ARK)
$700,000-$750,000 by 2030
N/A
Bull case: $1.5M by 2030
The wide
range of predictions reflects fundamental disagreement about Bitcoin’s
trajectory. Bulls point to institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and
supply constraints from the recent halving. Bears like Hayes focus
on macroeconomic headwinds, credit tightening, and potential policy
changes.
You may also like: New Ethereum Price Prediction Targets $17K by 2026. Could ETH Gain as Much as 350%?
Why Is Bitcoin Price Going
Down? Macroeconomic Headwinds Driving Bearish Sentiment
Hayes’
analysis centers on three key macroeconomic factors. First,
the disappointing July jobs report signals potential economic
weakness that could reduce risk appetite. Second, sluggish credit
growth across major economies limits the monetary expansion that
historically drives Bitcoin prices higher.
Third, renewed
tariff concerns following President Trump’s trade policies create
additional uncertainty. The U.S. initiated new tariffs on 69 countries,
adding to concerns about global economic disruption. Hayes specifically
mentions a “US Tariff bill coming due in 3Q” as a
catalyst for market stress.
These
factors combine to create what Hayes sees as an unfavorable environment
for risk assets. His prediction that “BTC tests $100k, ETH
tests $3k” reflects this macro-driven bearish outlook rather than
technical analysis alone.
Risk Management and
Investment Implications
For
investors, Hayes’ warning highlights the importance of risk management
in volatile markets. His decision to convert over $13 million to
stablecoins demonstrates how even crypto bulls adjust positions based
on changing conditions.
The $100,000
level represents an 18.7% correction from recent highs, which would be
significant but not unprecedented for Bitcoin. Historical analysis shows
Bitcoin has experienced corrections of 84% (2017-2018) and 70% (2022),
making Hayes’ prediction relatively modest by crypto standards.
Investors
should consider that multiple support levels exist between current
prices and $100,000. The 50-day EMA around $112,000, the $110,000
psychological level, and various Fibonacci retracements provide
potential buying opportunities for those sharing Hayes’ longer-term bullish
outlook.
Bitcoin’s
current price action reflects the ongoing battle between institutional
adoption narratives and traditional economic cycles. While Arthur Hayes’
$100,000 prediction may seem bearish, it represents a relatively modest
correction in the context of Bitcoin’s historical volatility. The
confluence of technical support levels around $100,000 suggests this area would
likely attract significant buying interest, potentially setting the stage for
the next leg higher once macroeconomic uncertainties resolve.
Check also my XRP analysis: XRP Price Will Hit $9 as Analysts Predict 200% Surge by September 2025
Bitcoin News FAQ
How Low Is Bitcoin Going
to Drop?
Based
on Arthur Hayes’ analysis and my technical research, Bitcoin could
test the $100,000 psychological support level, representing
an 18.7% correction from recent highs. My technical
analysis identifies key support zones at $104,000 (38.2%
Fibonacci retracement) and the primary target of $100,000
where the 200-day exponential moving average converges with late June lows.
If this critical support fails, I expect potential downside
to $75,000 (April lows) where substantial accumulation would
likely occur.
How Low Can Bitcoin Go in
2025?
In my
view, Bitcoin’s
downside in 2025 is limited by strong institutional support and technical
levels. While Hayes warns of a $100,000 test due to macro headwinds,
most analysts maintain bullish long-term outlooks. Pentoshi targets the
$94,000 area for aggressive accumulation, while Michael Van De
Poppe sees $103,190 as a worst-case scenario. Historical context shows
Bitcoin’s previous corrections of 84% (2017-2018) and 70% (2022),
making current predictions relatively modest.
What Is the Reason Bitcoin
Is Going Down?
Hayes
identifies three primary factors driving Bitcoin’s decline: the disappointing July
Non-Farm Payrolls report showing only 73,000 new jobs, sluggish
credit growth across major economies limiting nominal GDP growth, and renewed
tariff concerns with the U.S. tariff bill coming due in Q3. These
macroeconomic headwinds reduce appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Additionally, my technical analysis shows Bitcoin rose over
60% from April lows to July highs with only 8% correction,
suggesting a healthy pullback was overdue.
Will BTC Rise Again?
Multiple
factors support Bitcoin’s recovery potential. Institutional adoption continues with Bloomberg
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noting “much less volatility” since
BlackRock’s ETF filing. Standard Chartered maintains a $200,000
target for 2025, while Changelly forecasts $109,046 average. In
my technical view, the $100,000-$98,000 support zone contains
significant buy orders from institutions and retail investors. Even
bearish analysts like Pentoshi plan to “load up” below
$100,000, suggesting strong demand at lower levels would fuel the next
rally.
