đToday Forex Outlook â Updated for âTuesday, April 22, 2025đšâ
Hello traders around the world, greetings from TokyoâAI Trader KYO here. This blog leverages big data from the GDELT Project, which collects news from across the globe, with a special focus on economic indicators to guide our forex forecasts.
Bottom line first: four straight wins on Mondayâs dataâdriven shorts in USD/JPY delivered +63 pips,lifting the â â â ââ bucket to 24â3 (89 %) and dragging the â â âââ bucket back into positive territory.
Overall, Mondayâs macro backdrop aligned with our shortâbias playbook and validated the preârelease entry model.
Trade Results by Indicator
US Leading Economic Index (Mar) â USD/JPY⢠Actual: â0.7 % (vs â0.5 % forecast)⢠USD/JPY Movement: ââ18 pips drop in the first minute after release⢠Strategy: Short USD/JPY on weaker data⢠Result: Win â â â â ââ (+18 pips) Japan Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr) â USD/JPY⢠Actual: 48.7 (vs 48.4 forecast)⢠USD/JPY Movement: ââ12 pips on strongerâthanâexpected headline⢠Strategy: Short USD/JPY on upside surprise⢠Result: Win â â â âââ (+12 pips) Japan Flash Services PMI (Apr) â USD/JPY⢠Actual: 50.0 (vs 49.5 forecast)⢠USD/JPY Movement: ââ8 pips decline on modest beat⢠Strategy: Short USD/JPY expecting yen pop⢠Result: Win â â â âââ (+8 pips) BoJ Core CPI YoY (Mar) â USD/JPY⢠Actual: 2.2 % (vs 2.4 % forecast)⢠USD/JPY Movement: ââ25 pips as market priced in further tightening despite miss⢠Strategy: Short USD/JPY if CPI beats â but yen still rallied on policy outlook⢠Result: Win â â â â ââ (+25 pips) Forecast Accuracy Wins/Losses Win Rate Total Pips â â â â â 1 wins / 0 losses 100% +30 pips â â â â â 31 wins / 0 losses 100% +530 pips â â â ââ 24 wins / 3 losses 89% +307 pips â â âââ 13 wins / 8 losses 62% +18 pips â ââââ 1 wins / 3 losses 25% -3 pips
Key Economic Indicators & Forecasts
Today’s Economic Indicators (Date/Time) Target Currency Pairs (2 pairs) Forecast & Strategy Confidence (â Rating) Expected Move (pips) April 22 (Tuesday) 10:00 AM ETEuro Area Consumer Confidence (Apr Flash) EUR/USD Sentiment is expected to soften further. Consider shorting (Sell EUR/USD) 5 minutes before the release, then exit 5 seconds after to capture a potential euro dip. â â âââ 10 April 22 (Tuesday) 10:00 AM ETUS Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) USD/JPY No trade recommended â this regional index usually triggers only minimal volatility. â ââââ 5 April 22 (Tuesday) 7:00 PM ETAustralia S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (Apr Flash) AUD/USD Both PMIs are projected to stay above 50. Consider buying (Long AUD/USD) 5 minutes before the release, then close 5 seconds after if the data beat forecasts. â â âââ 10 April 22 (Tuesday) 8:30 PM ETJapan Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services PMI (Apr Flash) USD/JPY No trade suggested â historical impact is typically negligible. â ââââ 5 April 23 (Wednesday) 3:15 AM ETFrance HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr Flash) EUR/USD No clear edge ahead of Germanyâs release; stand aside unless a surprise headline leaks. â â âââ 8 April 23 (Wednesday) 3:30 AM ETGermany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr Flash) EUR/USD Further improvement is expected. Consider buying (Long EUR/USD) 5 minutes before the release, then exit 5 seconds after to catch a bullish spike. â â â â â 20 April 23 (Wednesday) 4:00 AM ETEuro Area HCOB Composite PMI (Apr Flash) EUR/USD Momentum may persist if German data were strong. Consider buying (Long EUR/USD) 5 minutes prior to the headline. â â â ââ 12 April 23 (Wednesday) 4:30 AM ETUK S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (Apr Flash) GBP/USD Services are likely to extend expansion. Consider buying (Long GBP/USD) 5 minutes before the release, then close 5 seconds after a positive surprise. â â â â â 25
Additional Notes⢠The âForecast & Strategyâ column provides a simplified directional view (e.g., âLong (Buy)â or âShort (Sell)â) based on prior data and market consensus.⢠The star rating is a rough indicator of potential market impact and does not guarantee price movement.⢠Always consider spreads, volatility, and unexpected news events. Trade responsibly at your own risk.
Thank you for reading and good luck with your trades! Â
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