Following the reports on the US labor market and business activity data at the beginning of July, the US dollar requires new drivers to resume its upward momentum.
Should the data indicate an acceleration in US inflation, the greenback will likely surge. Meanwhile, the US currency remains under pressure.
Additionally, in the upcoming week of 14.07.2025–20.07.2025, market participants will focus on the release of crucial macroeconomic statistics from China, Canada, the UK, Australia, and the US.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Monday: no important macroeconomic data releases scheduled.Tuesday: macroeconomic data from China, Canadian consumer price indices, US consumer price indices.Wednesday: UK consumer price indices, US producer price indices.Thursday: Australian labor market data, UK labor market data, US retail sales data.Friday: preliminary US consumer confidence index.Key event of the week: US consumer price indices on Wednesday.
Monday, July 14
There are no important macroeconomic statistics scheduled to be released.
Tuesday, July 15
02:00 – CNY: China’s GDP for Q2. Industrial Production. Retail Sales
The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release the GDP growth data for Q2 2025.
China’s GDP is expected to grow again in Q2 2025 after +1.2% (+5.4% YoY) in Q1 2025, +1.6% (+5.4% YoY) in Q4 2024, +1.3% (+4.6% YoY) in Q3 2024, +0.7% (+4.7% YoY) in Q2 2024, +1.6% (+5.3% YoY) in Q1 2024, +1.0% (+5.2% YoY) in Q4 2023, +1.3% (+4.9% YoY) in Q3 2023, +0.8% (+6.3% YoY) in Q2 2023, +2.2% (+4.5%YoY) in Q1, 0% (+2.9% YoY) in Q4 2022, +3.9% (+3.9 YoY) in Q3, -2.6% (+0.4% YoY) in Q2, +1.3% (+4.8% YoY) in Q1 2022, +1.6% (+4.0% YoY) in Q4, +0.2% (+4.9% YoY) in Q3, +1.3% (+7.9% YoY) in Q2 and +0.6% (+18.3% YoY) in Q1 2021.
China is a major buyer of commodities and a supplier of a wide range of finished goods to the global commodity market. Since China’s economy is the second largest in the world, the release of its significant macroeconomic indicators can profoundly influence the overall financial market.
Besides, China is the largest trading partner of Australia and New Zealand, purchasing a significant amount of commodities from these countries.
Therefore, positive macro statistics from China may also exert a positive influence on these commodity currencies. Conversely, if the anticipated data indicates a deceleration in one of the world’s largest economies, it would be a detrimental factor for global stock markets and commodity currencies.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China report on industrial production shows the output of Chinese industrial enterprises, such as factories and manufacturing facilities. The increase in industrial production is a positive factor for the yuan, indirectly signaling the possibility of accelerating inflation, which may force the People’s Bank of China to tighten monetary policy.
Conversely, the decline in the indicator value may negatively impact the yuan.
Previous values YoY: +5.8%, +5.9%, +6.2% in January 2025, +5.4%, +5.3%, +5.4%, +4.5%, +5.1%, +5.3%, +5.6%, +6.7%, +4.5%, +7.0%, +6.8%, +6.6%, +4.5%, +3.7%, +4.4%, +3.5%, +5.6%, +3.9%, +2.4% in February 2023.
The retail sales level index, published monthly by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, gauges the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country. The index is often viewed as an indicator of consumer confidence and economic prosperity and reflects the state of the retail sector in the near term. An increase in the index value is usually positive for the yuan, while a decrease in the index value will affect it negatively. Previous values YoY: +6.4%, +4.0%, +3.7% in January 2025, +3.0%, +4.8%, +3.2%, +2.1%, +2.7%, +2.0%, +3.7%, +2.3%, +3.1%, +5.5%, +7.4%, +10.1%, +4.6%, +2.5%, +3.1%, +12.7%, +18.4%, +10.6%, +3.5%, -1.8%, -5.9% after +8% in the last months of 2019 and -20.5% in February 2020.
The data indicate that this sector of the Chinese economy continues to recover after a strong decline in February and March 2020. If the data prove weaker than the forecasted or previous values, the yuan may experience a decline, potentially a sharp one.
12:30 – CAD: Canadian Consumer Price Indexes
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the retail price trends of a selected basket of goods and services. Meanwhile, the Core CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. The inflation target for the Bank of Canada ranges between 1% and 3%. A higher CPI reading is a sign of a rate hike and is positive for the Canadian dollar.
Previous values:
CPI: +0.6% (+1.7% YoY), -0.1% (+1.7% YoY) in April, +0.3% (+2.3% YoY) in March, +1.1% (+2.6% YoY) in February, +0.1% (+1.9% YoY) in January 2025, -0.4% (+1.8% YoY) in December 2024, 0% (+1.9% YoY), +0.4% (+2.0% YoY), -0.4% (+1.6% YoY),-0.2% (+2.0% YoY), +0.4% (+2.5% YoY), -0.1% (+2.7% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.5% (+2.7% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.3% (+2.8% YoY), 0% (+2.9% YoY), -0.3% (+3.4% YoY), +0.1% (+3.1% YoY), +0.1% (+3.1% YoY), -0.1% (+3.8% YoY), +0.4% (+4.0% YoY), +0.6% (+3.3% YoY), +0.1% (+2.8% YoY);Core CPI released by the Bank of Canada: +0.6% (+2.5% YoY), +0.5% (+2.5% YoY) in April, -0.2% (+2.2% YoY) in March, +0.7% (+2.7% YoY) in February, +0.4% (+2.1% YoY) in January 2025, +0.3% (+1.8% YoY) in December 2024, -0.1% (+1.6% YoY), +0.4% (+1.7% YoY), 0% (+1.6% YoY), -0.1% (+1.5% YoY), +0.3% (+1.7% YoY), -0.1% (+1.9% YoY), +0.6% (+1.8% YoY), +0.2% (+1.6% YoY), +0.5% (+2.0% YoY), +0.1% (+2.1% YoY), +0.1% (+2, 4% YoY), -0.5% (+2.6% YoY), +0.1% (+2.8% YoY), +0.3% (+2.7% YoY), -0.1% (+2.8% YoY), +0.1% (+3.3% YoY), +0.5% (+3.2% YoY), -0.1% (+3.2% YoY).
The data suggests that inflation continues to decelerate, which prompts the Canadian central bank to consider implementing a dovish monetary policy. If the expected data is worse than the previous values, it will negatively affect the Canadian dollar, but if the data exceeds expectations, it will bolster the currency.
12:30 – USD: Consumer Price Indexes
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation trends and changes in consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from the Core CPI to provide a more accurate assessment.
A high index reading typically strengthens the US dollar by signaling an increased likelihood of the Fed interest rate hike, while a low reading generally weakens the currency.
Previous values YoY:
CPI: +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.8%, +3.0% in January 2025, +2.9%, +2.7%, +2.6%, +2.4%, +2,5%, +2.9%, +3.0%, +3.3%, +3.4%, +3.5%, +3.2%, +3.1%, +3.4%, +3.1% +3.2%, +3.7%, +3.7%, +3.2%, +3.0%, +4.0%, +4.9%, +5.0%, +6.0%, +6.4% in January 2023;Core CPI: +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +3.1%, +3.3% in January 2025, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.3%, +3.3%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.4%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.9%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.1%, +4.3%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +5.6%, +5.5%, +5.6% in January 2023.
The figures indicate that inflation is decreasing inconsistently, picking up again in some months. Previous data suggest a slower decline than the Fed had expected. However, the current rate is well below the June 2022 level, when annual inflation in the US reached a 40-year high of 9.1%. US inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, forcing the central bank to keep interest rates high or take a pause to assess the economic and labor market situation if the reduction occurs.
If the numbers surpass expectations and previous readings, the greenback will strengthen, as this scenario would heighten the chances that the Fed will keep interest rates elevated for longer or resume its cycle of monetary policy tightening.
20:00 – GBP: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s Speech
Market participants are waiting for Andrew Bailey to clarify the future policy of the UK central bank. Typically, during the speech of the Bank of England governor, the British pound and the FTSE index of the London Stock Exchange face a significant spike in volatility, especially if there are any indications regarding monetary policy tightening or easing. Andrew Bailey will likely explain the Bank of England’s interest rate decision and discuss the UK economy’s health and prospects against the backdrop of high energy prices and inflation. If Bailey does not address monetary policy issues, the reaction to his speech will be subdued.
Wednesday, July 16
06:00 – GBP: Consumer Price Index. Core Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the retail prices of a group of goods and services comprising the UK consumer basket. The CPI is a key indicator of inflation. The British pound’s movement on the currency market and the London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 index performance depend on the release of the CPI data.
In May, the UK consumer inflation rose +0.2% (+3.4% YoY) after +0.3% (+2.6% YoY) in March, +0.4% (+2.8% YoY) in February, +3.0% YoY in January 2025, +0.3% (+2.5% YoY) in December 2024, +0.1% (2.6% YoY), +0,6% (2.3% YoY) in October, 0% (+1.7%YoY) in September, +0.3% (+2.2% YoY) in August, -0.2% (+2.2% YoY) in July, +0.1% (+2.0% YoY) in June, +0.3% (+2.0% YoY) in May, +0.3% (+2, 3% YoY) in April, +0.6% (+3.2% YoY) in March, +0.6% (+3.4% YoY), -0.6% (+4.0% YoY) in January 2024, +0.4% (+4.0% YoY) in December. The data suggests persistent inflationary pressures in the UK, which are expected to bolster the British pound, particularly if the actual data surpasses the forecasted values.
An indicator reading below the forecast/previous value may cause the weakening of the British pound since low inflation will force the Bank of England to stick to the easy monetary policy course.
The Core CPI, published by the Office for National Statistics, measures the price change in a selected basket of goods and services (excluding food and energy) over a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the British pound, while a negative outcome weakens it.
In May, the core CPI gained +3.5% YoY after +3.8% in April, +3.4% in March, +3.5% in February, +3.7% in January 2025, +3.2% in December 2024, +2.6% in November, +3.3% in October, +1.7% in September, +3.6% in August, +3.3% in July, +3.5% in June and May, +3.9%, +4.2%, +4.5%, +5.1% in January 2024, December and November, after rising +5.7% +6.1%, +6.2% three months earlier. The publication will likely positively impact the British pound in the short term if it exceeds the forecasted and previous values. A reading below the forecast and/or previous values may weaken the pound.
12:30 – USD: Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in wholesale prices determined by manufacturers at all stages of production. The index is one of the leading inflation indicators in the United States, estimating the average change in wholesale producer prices.
Rising production costs increase wholesale selling prices, which ultimately boosts inflation. In normal economic conditions, growing inflation usually puts upward pressure on the national currency quotes, implying a tighter central bank monetary policy.
Previous values: +0.1% (+3.0% YoY), -0.5% (+2.4% YoY), -0.4% (+2.7% YoY), 0% (+3.2% YoY), +0,4% (+3,5% YoY) in January 2025,+0.2% (+3.3% YoY) in December, +0.4% (+3.0% YoY) in November, +0.2% (+2.4% YoY) in October, 0% (+1.8% YoY) in September, +0.2% (+1.7% YoY) in August, +0.1% (+2.2% YoY) in July, +0.2% (+2.6% YoY) in June, -0.2% (+2.2% YoY) in May, +0.5% (+2.2% YoY) in April, +0.2% (+1,6% YoY) in March, +0.6% (+1.6% YoY) in February, +0.3% (+0.9% YoY) in January 2024, 0% (+0.9% YoY) in December 2023, -0.5% (+1.3% YoY), +0.5% (+2.2% YoY), +0.7% (+1.6% YoY), +0.3% (+0.8% YoY), +0.1% (+0.2% YoY), -0.3% (+0,9% YoY), +0.2% (+2.3% YoY), -0.5% (+2.7% YoY), -0.1% (+4.9% YoY), +0.7% (+5.7% YoY) in January 2023.
If the data exceeds the forecasted value, the US dollar will likely strengthen. Conversely, if the data falls below forecasted and previous values, this will exert pressure on the Fed. This could lead to the Fed’s monetary policy easing, which will negatively impact the US dollar.
Thursday, July 17
01:30 – AUD: Employment Rate. Unemployment Rate
The employment rate reflects the monthly change in the number of employed Australian citizens. The increase in the indicator value positively impacts consumer spending, stimulating economic growth. A high reading is positive for the Australian dollar, while a low reading is negative. Previous indicator values: -2,500 in May, +89,000 in April, +32,200 in March, -52,800 in February, +44,000 in January 2025, +56,300 in December 2024, +35,600 in November, +15,900 in October, +64,100 in September, +42,600 in August, +48,900 in July, +52,300 in June, +39,500 in May, +37,400 in April, -6,100 in March, +120,400 in February, +11,900 in January 2024, -58,900 in December 2023, +55,500 in October, +13,400 in September, +62,300 in August, 0 in July, +19,800 in June, +83,800 in May, -14,700 in April, +93,800 in March, +45,100 in February, 23,100 in January 2023.
Besides, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish a report on the unemployment rate. It is an indicator that estimates the ratio of the share of the unemployed population to the total number of working-age citizens. The rise in the indicator readings demonstrates the weakening of the labor market, negatively impacting the national economy. A decrease in the indicator is positive for the Australian dollar.
Forecast: Australian unemployment has remained at its lowest levels and stood at 4.1% in June (against 4.1% in May, April, March, February, and January 2025, 4.0% in December 2024, 3.9% in November, 4.1% in October, September, and August, 4.2% in July, 4.1% in June, 4.0% in May, 3.8% in April, 3.7% in March and February, 4.1% in January, 3.9% in December and November, 3.8% in October, 3.6% in September, 3.7% in August and July, 3.5% in June, 3.6% in May, 3.7% in April, 3.5% in March and February, 3.7% in January, 3.5% in December, 3.4% in November and October, 3.5% in September and August, 3.4% in July, 3.5% in June, 3.9% in May and April, 4.0% in March and February, 4.2% in January), while the employment rate has increased.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has repeatedly stated that the Australian economy and the central bank’s plans are influenced by key indicators like the level of household debt and spending, wage growth, and the state of the labor market, in addition to the international trade situation. If the indicator readings are lower than expected, the Australian dollar may decline significantly in the short term, while higher data will strengthen the currency.
06:00 – GBP: Average Weekly Earnings Over the Last Three Months. Unemployment Rate
The UK Office for National Statistics monthly publishes a report on average weekly earnings covering the period for the last three months, including and excluding bonuses.
This report is a key short-term indicator of employee average earnings changes in the UK. An increase in wages is positive for the British pound, whereas a low indicator value is unfavorable. Forecast: The May report suggests that average earnings, including bonuses, rose again in the last three months, including March, April, and May, after gaining +5.3%, +5.5%, +5.6%, +5.9%, +6.0%, +5.6%, +5.2%, +4.3%, +3.8%, +4.0%, 4.5%, +5.7%, +5.9%, +5.7%, +5.6%, +5.6%, +5.8%, +6.5%, +7.2%, +7.9%, +8.1%, +8.5%, +8.2%, +6.9%, +6.5%, +5.8%, +5.9%, +6.0%, +6.5%, +6.%, +6.1%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +6.4%, +6.8%, +7.0%, +5.6%, +5.7%, +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.2% in previous periods. The earnings value excluding bonuses also increased with percentages at +5.6%, +5.9%, +5.8%, +5.9%, +5.6%, +5.2%, +4.8%, +4.9%, +5.1%, +5.4%, +6.0%, +6.0%, +6.0%, +6.1%, +6.2%, +6.6%, +7.3%, +7.7%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.3%, +7.2%, +6.7%, +6.6%, +6.6%, +6.7%, +6.5%, +6.1%, +5.8%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +4.7%, +4.4%, +4.2%, +4.2%, +4.1%, +3.8%, +3.7%, +3.8% in previous periods. These figures show continued growth in employee earnings levels, which is positive for the British pound. If the data outperforms the forecast and/or previous values, the pound will likely strengthen in the currency exchange market. Conversely, if the data falls short of the forecast/previous values, the pound will be negatively affected.
The UK unemployment data will be released at the same time. Unemployment is expected to stand at 4.6% for the three months of March, April, and May (against 4.6%, 4.5%, 4.4%, 4.4%, 4.4%, 4.3%, 4.3%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.4%, 4.4%, 4.3%, 4.2%, 4.0%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.2%, 4.0%, 3.9% in previous periods).
Since 2012, the UK unemployment rate has fallen steadily from 8.0% in September 2012. The unemployment decline is a positive factor for the pound, while its growth negatively impacts the currency.
If the UK labor market data appears to be worse than the forecast and/or the previous value, the pound will be under pressure.
Regardless, when the UK labor market data is released, the pound and the London Stock Exchange are expected to experience increased volatility.
12:30 – USD: Retail Sales. Retail Sales Control Group
This Census Bureau report on retail sales reflects the total sales of US retailers of all sizes and types. The change in retail sales is a key indicator of consumer spending. The report is a leading indicator, and the data may be subject to significant revisions in the future. High indicator readings strengthen the US dollar, while low readings weaken it. A relative decline in the indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the US dollar, while a rise in the indicator will positively impact the currency.
In May 2025, the value of the indicator stood at -0.9% (after +0.1%, +1.5%, +0.2%, -0.9% in January, +0.4% in December, +0.7% in November, +0.4% in October and September, +0.1% in August, +1.1% in July, -0.2% in June, +0.2% in May, -0.2% in April, +0.5% in March, +0.7% in February, -1.1% in January 2024).
Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in the United States, showing the change in the retail industry.
Retail sales serve as an indicator of domestic consumption, contributing the most to the US GDP and being one of the main factors influencing inflation. Deterioration of the indicator values is a negative factor for the US dollar. Inflation deceleration may prompt the Fed to begin the process of monetary policy easing.
The Retail Control Group indicator gauges volume in the retail industry and is used to calculate price indexes for most goods. High readings strengthen the US dollar, while low readings weaken the currency. A slight increase in the figures is unlikely to boost the dollar. If the data is lower than the previous readings, the dollar may be negatively impacted in the short term. Previous values: +0.4%, -0.2%, +0.4%, +1.0%, -0,8%, +0.7%, +0.4%, -0.1%, +0.7%, +0.3%, +0.4%, +0.9%, +0.4%, -0.3%, +0.9%, 0%, -0.4% in January 2024, +0.6%, +0.2%, +0.2%, +0.2%, +0.2%, +0.7%, +0.3%, +0.4%, +1.0%, -1.2%, -0.1%, +2.6% in January 2023.
Friday, July 18
14:00 – USD: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary Release)
This indicator reflects American consumers’ confidence in the country’s economic development. A high reading indicates economic growth, while a low one points to stagnation. Previous indicator values: 60.7 in June, 52.2 in May and April, 57.0 in March, 64.7 in Fabruary, 71.1 in January, 74.0 in December, 71.8 in November, 70.5 in October, 70.1 in September, 67.9 in August, 66.4 in July, 68.2 in June, 69.1 in May, 77.2 in April, 79.4 in March, 76.9 in February, 79.0 in January 2024, 69.7 in December 2023, 61.3 in November, 63.8 in October, 68.1 in September, 69.5 in August, 71.6 in July, 64.4 in June, 59.2 in May, 63,5 in April, 62.0 in March, 67.0 in February, 64.9 in January 2023, 59.7 in December, 56.8 in November, 59.9 in October, 58.6 in September, 58.2 in August, 51.5 in July, 50.0 in June, 58.4 in May, 65.2 in April, 59.4 in March, 62.8 in February, 67.2 in January 2022. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the US dollar, while a decrease will weaken the currency. The data shows that the recovery of this indicator is uneven, which is unfavorable for the greenback. A decline below previous values will likely negatively impact the US dollar in the near term.
Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode
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