Merchants work on the New York Inventory Trade ground on Feb. 20, 2025.
Spencer Platt | Getty Pictures
An costly inventory market didn’t stop merchants from getting extra bullish as traders more and more guess that the bull run may maintain chugging alongside, in line with Charles Schwab’s new quarterly shopper survey.
The bulls proceed to outnumber the bears amongst merchants 51% to 34%, in line with Schwab’s survey, which polled 1,040 lively merchants final month. Younger merchants below the age of 40 particularly confirmed a spike in optimism, with bullishness leaping to 59%. That compares to 47% within the fourth quarter. The optimistic sentiment got here whilst two-thirds of the merchants consider the market is overvalued, the survey mentioned.
“It is clear that almost all of merchants consider there’s some froth out there however on steadiness additionally they really feel like there’s nonetheless extra room for the bulls to run,” mentioned James Kostulias, head of buying and selling companies at Charles Schwab. “Greater than half of merchants plan to maneuver extra cash into shares in Q1,” Kostulias added.
Whereas bullishness signifies optimistic views in the marketplace, it may also be seen as a opposite indicator when there are indicators of extra.
S&P 500
After a booming two-year interval through which the S&P 500 climbed greater than 50%, the momentum has slowed as of late with rising considerations about an financial slowdown and heightened volatility from fast coverage adjustments from the brand new administration. The fairness benchmark is simply up 1.3% on the yr, whereas the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has dipped into unfavourable territory for 2025.
When it comes to sectors, merchants are most bullish on vitality, tech, finance and utilities. These sectors are sometimes beneficiaries below the Trump administration as a consequence of potential deregulation.
The survey additionally detected a major drop within the variety of merchants who consider a recession will happen within the U.S. Solely a 3rd of the respondents referred to as it “considerably seemingly,” in comparison with 54% within the prior quarter.
The vast majority of merchants additionally didn’t see a reacceleration in inflation, with two-thirds of them seeing value pressures holding regular.
