Just when you think the Western Zionists are backed into a corner, they come out swinging in a whole new theater. We’ve been warning about US-Israeli machinations in the South Caucasus for the better part of two years, and it now appears that Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Armenia are beginning to play their hands (although the latter’s hand might be being played for it). Crackdowns are intensifying, Türkiye is cutting major deals with the West (always an ominous sign in that transactional relationship), Azerbaijan is suddenly at odds with both Iran and Russia, and the Armenian prime minister is evening offering to show people his penis. And Washington is right in the middle of it, offering to administer a contentious corridor cutting through southern Armenia that would have far reaching effects.
There’s a lot to unpack and the full meaning and extent of US-Israeli involvement is hazy, but what’s clear is preparations are underway for some major shaking up of the South Caucasus and beyond. Today I wanted to take a look at goings-on with Azerbaijan, its relationship with Russia, and how it fits into Washington-Tel Aviv’s plans. On Wednesday, we’ll take a closer look at Armenia and Türkiye.
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Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev was once described in a Wikileaks US diplomatic cable as an unpredictable hothead similar to Sonny Corleone. That seemed like a mischaracterization in recent years as he calmly navigated the New Cold War, but he might finally be living up to that billing.
Not only is Azerbaijan allowing its territory to be used by Israel to launch attacks on Iran, but relations between Baku and Moscow have gone in the toilet, which also has major implications for the destabilization campaign against Tehran and the entire Eurasian landmass as the country is one of the most important transport and logistics hub in the region.
Let’s start back on Christmas Day. That’s when Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 went down and Baku’s relationship with Moscow did an about-face. The plane, which was traveling from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to Grozny in the Russian region of Chechnya, ran into trouble over Russia and made an emergency landing in Aktau, Kazakhstan, in which 38 of the 67 people on board were killed. The black box data was extracted and is still being analyzed, but within hours of the crash media in the US and Europe were quick to point the finger at Russia. That was unsurprising.
What was eyebrow raising was that the president of Azerbaijan — whose country has maintained strong ties with Russia despite the with-us-or-against-us Western pressure in recent years — was on the same page as the Western media.
President Ilham Aliyev made strong accusations against Russia in the days after the crash. In his comments, he notably does not once mention Ukrainian drones, which were being launched against civilian infrastructure in the region at the time of the plane downing. That might help explain how Russia accidentally shot at the plane — if that’s indeed what happened as Aliyev claims. It’s unclear why Aliyev doesn’t mention the possibility that shrapnel from a Ukrainian drone could have caused the damage to the plane. And it’s entirely possible—if not likely—that Ukraine and its Western partners made a premeditated move to launch a swarm of drones that coincided with the attempted plane landing, with the hope of causing this type of accident.
While Aliyev no doubt has public opinion to worry about after such an awful incident, is it not odd that even if his theory is 100 percent correct, he wouldn’t at least try to soften the blow against his ally Russia and present Ukraine as at least partially responsible? Instead Kiev is largely getting a free pass as public anger is directed at Moscow. For what it’s worth, Aliyev’s theory of what happened is the same as US officials quoted in American media.
Let’s fast forward to the ‘12-Day War.’ It is widely known that Israel used and continues to use Azerbaijan as a forward operating base for intelligence operations into Iran and to launch drones. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian recently “urged” Aliyev to investigate the issue. Aliyev denies any involvement. Okay then.
Regardless, Baku and Tel Aviv are tight with Azerbaijan a key supplier of fossil fuels (transported through Türkiye) powering the genocide in Gaza and in return receiving Israeli tech and weapons like loitering munitions that gave Azerbaijan the upper hand in its conflicts with Armenia. Cooperating with the Zionists against Iran isn’t surprising; but with Baku’s turn against Moscow the chessboard in the Caucasus is being overturned.
What ties all of the outside actors together in the Azerbaijan-Armenia-Türkiye sandwich is the battle for control over a key logistics corridors in the south Caucasus—the so-called Zangezur Corridor.
It would link Azerbaijan to its Türkiye-bordered exclave of Nakhchivan and stretch parallel to Armenia’s border with Iran. It is the missing link in what would be the shortest land transport route between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. And key to many involved parties is not only the shorter distance but the fact that it’s one of the few routes that entirely bypasses Russia and it would weaken Iran by opening an interlocked Turkic front across its northern borders. This so-called “Turan Corridor” is a major concern of Tehran for economic and defense reasons. From Security & Defence Quarterly:
Azerbaijan used to pay 15 percent of the 350 million cubic metres of gas sent to Nakhchivan through Iran as a transit fee. With the opening of the new corridor, Iran may lose this profit.
An agreement on sale of gas was signed between Türkiye and Iran in 1996. Based on that agreement, Türkiye has been buying gas from Iran for years. While Türkiye pays Iran US$490 for a thousand cubic metres of gas, it can buy the same amount from Azerbaijan for US$335.
If a gas pipeline is built from Azerbaijan to Türkiye through this corridor, Iran’s loss of gas revenue may be huge.
The planned gas pipeline project from Turkmenistan through Iran to Türkiye then to Europe was frozen in 2017 because of financial disagreements. Turkmenistan can now deliver this gas to Europe via Azerbaijan.
The importance of Iran’s pipeline to Armenia has also decreased.
The Strategic Council of Foreign Relations in Tehran, whose director is Iran’s former minister of foreign affairs Kamal Kharazi, condemned the construction of the Zangezur corridor, indicating that the corridor has been introduced as NATO’s “Turan corridor,” a project ostensibly supported by Israel and NATO, which aims to foment ethnic unrest in the areas of Iran inhabited by Turks. As per the aforementioned Council, NATO’s Turan corridor is supposed to directly bring NATO onto the northern border of Iran, the southern border of Russia, and western China and lay the groundwork for their disintegration.
Makes sense. Here’s where it gets tricky. Russia and Iran have been at odds over the opening of these corridors (the Zangezur that would in theory create the Turan) with Moscow in support.
Moscow, which until about a year ago, was on good terms with both Armenia and Azerbaijan and envisioned itself playing a major role in unlocking these transportation networks that would benefit Russia. Point 9 of the trilateral statement signed between Azerbaijan, Russia, and Armenia in 2020 following Russia’s brokering the peace to end the Second Karabakh War, reads:
All economic and transport links in the region shall be unblocked. The Republic of Armenia shall guarantee the safety of transport communication between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic with a view to organize the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions. Control over transport communication shall be exercised by the Border Guard Service bodies of the FSS of Russia.
But now Armenia and Azerbaijan have both at least partially weaponized crises against Moscow, which calls into doubt Russian involvement in any Zangezur Corridor project.
Armenia, for its part is way ahead of Azerbaijan in turning on Moscow. It blamed Russia for not coming to its aid more forcefully in its conflicts with Azerbaijan. While one can sympathize with that sentiment, let’s review some other key details:
It was Armenia that moved peace talks to Western platforms, and it was during those meetings that Armenia agreed to officially recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan.
Once Armenia did so (and PM Pashinyan declared so publicly), the die was cast. Nagorno-Karabakh was (and is) recognized as Azerbaijani territory by the international community but was overwhelmingly populated by ethnic Armenians. Roughly 100,000 of them fled to Armenia after Azerbaijan blockaded the region for months and then moved militarily to assert control in September —an operation that resulted in hundreds of deaths.
Despite moving the negotiation process under the guidance of the West and publicly recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory, the Pashinyan government has sought to lay all the blame for its loss at the feet of Russia.
It quickly became apparent why. Armenian officials are arguing that since the 2020 Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement included provisions about Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh and their control over a corridor that ran from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh fell apart, the rest of the document is essentially null and void That means no Russian involvement in any Zangezur Corridor. We’ve since heard Armenian officials discuss alternatives like private security forces or Russia monitoring from afar—whatever that means. Among a series of downgrades to Russia’s presence in Armenia, on January 1, Russian border guards withdrew from the Armenian-Iranian border checkpoint at Yerevan’s request. (Since 1992 Armenia’s borders with Türkiye and Iran had been the responsibility of Russian troops.)
There are now reports emerging that “the US is ready to take over the administration of the Zangezur Corridor, potentially resolving one of the most contentious disputes between Azerbaijan and Armenia.” It’s presented as some benign intervention by Washington to unlock peace between the two sides, but if you’ve been following this story the past few years, it’s clear this geopolitical power play was the plan all along, and it looks like it’s getting close.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, speaking to journalists Saturday aboard his flight back from a visit to Azerbaijan, said that Armenia is now willing to engage in regional economic projects, particularly Zangezur.
“Although Armenia initially opposed the Zangezur Corridor, it has begun to show a more flexible stance, recognizing the potential for economic integration. The development of this region presents an opportunity not just for Azerbaijan, but also for Armenia, for Türkiye, Iran, and other neighboring countries,” he said.
While Armenia had previously resisted the opening of the corridor (and it’s still not 100 percent clear it’s on board, but it certainly appears that way), Azerbaijan still insisted upon honoring the 2020 agreement that would see Russian involvement.
Yet Baku’s recent ratcheting up of tensions with Moscow is likely to serve the same purpose as what Armenia did in the aftermath of Nagorno-Karabakh—to provide an excuse to shove Russia out of the project. And issues keep popping up to deepen the Azerbaijan-Russia spat:
On June 27, two Azerbaijani brothers Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov were detained in a Yekaterinburg raid conducted by local Russian law enforcement. Both died during the police detention.
In response Azerbaijan conducted a search at the Baku office of Russian media Sputnik’s Azerbaijan office, and declared its activities illegal.
Azerbaijani police dragged Russian nationals into court after their arrest. Their faces were severely swollen and bruised. Some were bleeding.
The massive state media presence there to document it shows this abuse was meant for broadcast. pic.twitter.com/xHnMYYYqni
— Lindsey Snell (@LindseySnell) July 1, 2025
In addition, Azerbaijan canceled all cultural events planned in the country that were related to Russia or Russian performers and artists. According to information circulated by Oxu.az and other pro-government media, unofficial notices allegedly announcing the gradual closure of Russian-language schools have appeared in some school parents’ WhatsApp groups.
Russia looked to send a response on July 3 with the the arrest of another prominent Azeri:
🇷🇺🚨 **Big deal in Moscow: Vaqif Suleymanov, Azeri mafia boss, arrested.**
According to Russian media, he is **one of the most powerful criminal leaders in Azerbaijan**, with extensive networks across Russia, the Caucasus and the Middle East. His arrest represents **a strong…
— marco orio (@Marcorio61O) July 3, 2025
To coincide with this latest row, Azerbaijani media are airing reports that based upon the contents of an anonymous letter received by Minval.az the Russian Ministry of Defense issued instructions to attack the plane that went down on Christmas Day as part of a broader strategy. What exactly that strategy from the Russian side would be remains unclear. It’s really quite difficult to see how intentionally downing a passenger aircraft of an ally would serve Russian interests, but what do I know?
This all does, however, serve the interests of those wanting to open a Turkic corridor stretching into Central Asia. As Azerbaijani political analyst Elkhan Shahinoglu says:
“In light of these events, we must undoubtedly strengthen our alliance with Türkiye. The Turkish military base in Azerbaijan is necessary so that, in case of pressure from Iran or Russia, they see the Türkiye-Azerbaijan alliance standing before them.”
Just how involved the US is in all of this? Hard to tell, but let’s just say it’s all coming up roses for Washington right now. We can go all the way back to then-U.S. assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian Affair, James O’Brien’s Nov. 15, 2023 comments during “The Future of Nagorno-Karabakh” House committee hearing for insight on the US intentions regarding these corridors. Here’s what O’Brien said:
“A future that is built around the access of Russia and Iran as the main participants in the security of the region, the South Caucasus, is unstable and undesirable, including for both the governments of Azerbaijan and Armenia. They have the opportunity to make a different decision now.”
Like so much else, this strategy has carried over into the Trump administration—albeit with a twist, which in this case is another notch on Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize campaign belt.
The Trump administration is advancing a proposal that would introduce a U.S.-run commercial operator as a neutral guarantor of the Zangezur Corridor. The corridor would connect mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave, providing Baku with a direct overland route. According…
— CaucasusWarReport (@Caucasuswar) July 2, 2025
We’ll see if this proposal has legs. Judging by years of groundwork, one would bet it does. More to come on Wednesday.
