Activist ValueAct sees an ignored alternative at Liberty Reside Group

Enterprise: Liberty Reside Group is a monitoring inventory that represents Liberty Media Group’s possession stake in Reside Nation Leisure. Reside Nation operates as a dwell leisure firm worldwide. It operates by the next segments” Concert events, Ticketing, and Sponsorship & Promoting. The Concert events phase promotes dwell music occasions in its owned or operated venues, and in rented third-party venues. The Ticketing phase manages the ticketing operations, together with the supply of ticketing software program and companies to purchasers and customers with a market for tickets and occasion data by cell apps, different web sites, shops and its major web sites: livenation.com and ticketmaster.com. The Sponsorship & Promoting phase sells worldwide, nationwide and native sponsorships, in addition to the position of promoting and promotional applications.

Inventory Market Worth: ~$7B ($75.85 per share)

Possession: 5.51%

Common Value: $51.17

Activist Commentary: ValueAct has been a premier company governance investor for over 20 years. ValueAct principals are usually on the boards of half of the agency’s core portfolio positions and have had 56 public firm board seats over 23 years. Moreover, the agency is a long-term, considerate and diligent investor identified for creating worth behind the scenes. ValueAct has beforehand commenced 105 activist campaigns and has a mean return of 55.02% versus 21.76% for the Russell 2000.

ValueAct filed a 13D on Feb. 11, reporting a 5.51% place in Liberty Reside Group (LLYVA).

Liberty Reside (LLYVA) is a monitoring inventory that represents Liberty Media Group’s 30% possession stake in Reside Nation (LYV), a world dwell leisure firm. John Malone’s Liberty Media Group has traditionally used monitoring shares as an enormous a part of the corporate’s toolbox to permit buyers to have a extra centered publicity to the companies they preferred with out having to leap by the authorized and tax hoops of a derivative. He used this prior to now with the Atlanta Braves and Sirius XM, and he presently makes use of it with Reside Nation and F1. ValueAct has taken a 5.51% place in Liberty Reside, nevertheless it additionally owns a 0.44% stake in Reside Nation, bringing the agency’s efficient possession of Reside Nation to roughly 2%, which might make it a prime shareholder. 

There are two traits which might be core to ValueAct’s investing philosophy and that permeate lots of its investments: First, the agency likes firms that it thinks are considerably misunderstood by the market. Second, it is a long-term investor that may tolerate short-term ache. Each of these facets are current right here. As an energetic shareholder of Spotify, ValueAct has seen firsthand how the music business has remodeled during the last a number of years. It’s a lot simpler immediately for a gifted artist to construct a world following by streaming companies and the advertising and marketing energy of social media, however the monetization that follows is just not as straightforward. The payouts from streaming companies are comparatively meager and simply get smaller as extra artists are added to the platforms. In consequence, dwell performances and touring have grow to be essentially the most profitable methods for artists to earn – and Reside Nation dominates this market. The corporate owns all sides of this ecosystem, which permits Reside Nation to handle an artist’s total tour with none exterior involvement. Aside from personal peer Anschutz Leisure Group, no firm comes shut in scale, and even Anschutz lacks the total vertical integration of Reside Nation. Nevertheless, whereas this dominance is definitely an asset, it will also be considered as a legal responsibility by some, primarily the U.S. Division of Justice.

In Could 2024, the DOJ sued to interrupt up Reside Nation and Ticketmaster, sending the inventory down about 8% from $101.40 to $93.48. Whereas this growth could trigger loads of buyers to run in worry, ValueAct noticed it as a shopping for alternative in an excellent firm that was having a market overreaction. The agency invested in Microsoft throughout considerations over the PC market, in Spotify when folks thought streaming was dying and in Disney in the course of the writers’ strike, so it’s no shock that the agency noticed a chance in Reside Nation at a time of heightened uncertainty. The worst factor that the DOJ may do is power the breakup of Reside Nation and Ticketmaster, a structural treatment that’s not often resorted to by the Justice Division (AT&T’s 1984 breakup being a notable exception). It’s extra doubtless that Reside Nation agrees to sure modifications like amending its venue reserving insurance policies and shortening the size of Ticketmaster contracts to permit for extra competitors to assuage the DOJ. Nevertheless, even when the worst case occurs and the 2 firms separate, Reside Nation stockholders would personal two nice companies with sturdy tailwinds and best-in-class market positioning. It will doubtless even be one other shopping for alternative for buyers like ValueAct.

The ultimate piece of hidden or misunderstood worth on the firm is its venue growth. Whereas in main U.S. cities with NBA and NHL groups, there are large arenas for live shows, in different cities and globally there aren’t practically as many available venues. Seeking to tackle this hole, Reside Nation is pursuing these initiatives, efficiently growing the College of Texas at Austin’s new area and dealing on comparable initiatives world wide. In consequence, the corporate has been dedicating loads of capex to its venue growth objectives: Capex has elevated by 48% over the previous two years and complete debt has tripled since 2015 and has virtually doubled since 2019. Furthermore, the corporate’s disclosure round this has been considerably opaque including to extra market confusion and uncertainty. Constructing these venues is pricey within the quick time period however ought to repay handsomely in the long run, a dynamic that ValueAct is aware of. Contemplate that the agency invested in Adobe when it was changing from a product buy to a subscription, sending short-term income down however creating important long-term worth. Proudly owning these venues will give Reside Nation extra worth to its purchasers and extra income from venues (versus renting venues). As these venues are constructed and utilized, buyers will begin realizing that there might be a very good return on the funding.  

Assuming the thesis above is correct, there may be important worth available by shopping for the monitoring inventory or the widespread shares of Reside Nation. So, why purchase the monitoring inventory? The reply is as a result of the monitoring inventory trades at a pointy low cost to Reside Nation, and it may present much more worth above and past the basic undervaluation of the enterprise if this low cost goes away. That may occur if the identical plan have been adopted as with earlier Liberty monitoring shares akin to Sirius. Liberty Media has already introduced plans to spin off Liberty Reside right into a separate public firm later this yr, which is what it did with Sirius. At the moment, the Liberty Reside low cost ought to compress a little bit however will solely go away totally if merged into Reside Nation. That’s what ultimately occurred with Sirius. For a lot of causes, together with the connection between John Malone and Reside Nation CEO Michael Rapino, we predict the spinoff and subsequent merger will take much less time. ValueAct is the sort of investor that’s glad holding for 5 years or extra as worth is being created.

Ken Squire is the founder and president of 13D Monitor, an institutional analysis service on shareholder activism, and the founder and portfolio supervisor of the 13D Activist Fund, a mutual fund that invests in a portfolio of activist 13D investments.