US 10-year Treasury yields are down in 9 of the previous 11 days as fears about financial weak spot percolate. These actually kicked off after a sequence of sentimental client and enterprise sentiment stories. Yesterday jobless claims jumped and at the moment there was extra gas at the moment with brutal drop within the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker.
That is left 10s at 4.23% from a excessive of 4.66% on Feb 12 and 4.80% in mid-January. Critically, that has 10-year yields now beneath the underside finish of the Fed’s 4.25-4.50% vary and 3-month t-bill charges at 4.30%. That is an inversion of the yield curve which is a traditional front-runner of a recession.
That mentioned, traditional hasn’t appeared to use currently because the curve inverted from 2022 till late final 12 months and we’re nonetheless ready for the recession.
h/t @Econ_Parker
