IMF GDP Growth Forecast India 2025-26, IMF India GDP Growth Rate Prediction: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday trimmed its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for India by 30 basis points (bps). The multilateral development bank now expects India’s GDP to expand 6.2 per cent in the financial year ending March 31, 2026. It revised its forecast for the next financial year by 20 bps, to 6.3 per cent.
The IMF—which has 190 countries as members—expects consumer inflation in the country to average at 4.3 per cent in FY26 and then ease to 4.1 per cent the next financial year.
The IMF’s latest economic projetions come roughly two weeks after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s Monetary Policy Committee lowered its annual GDP and retail inflation projections to 4.0 per cent and 6.5 per cent for FY26, respectively.
This week, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the central bank will continue to closely track the rapidly evolving global landscape while staying “agile and proactive” in its monetary policy moves. While the Indian economy and financial markets have shown remarkable resilience, they are not immune to global uncertainties and volatility, said the RBI Governor, who took office in December last year.
Acknowledging that the growth-inflation balance has improved considerably, he stated that global headwinds and weather-related risks could still affect this outlook. “Even though we have projected a somewhat lower real GDP growth for FY26 at 6.5 per cent, India is still the fastest growing economy. Yet, this is below our aspirations. We’ve already reduced repo rates twice and ensured sufficient liquidity,” said Malhotra at an event. Read more on how RBI views the economy now
IMF global GDP growth forecast
The development lender also cut its global GDP growth estimate, citing global uncertainties and trade-related tensions.
It now expects global growth to be at 2.8 per cent in 2025, marking a 50-basis-point decrease from its previous projection.
For 2026, it expects global growth to stand at 3.0 per cent, 30 bps lower than its previous estimate.
IMF cuts US & China growth forecasts
The IMF lowered its 2025 and 2026 forecasts for US economic growth to 1.8 per cent and 1.7 per cent from 2.7 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively.
It also revised its projections for the Chinese economy to 4.0 per cent each for 2025 and 2025 from 4.6 per cent and 4.5 per cent, respectively.
