EUR/USD rips increased, clearing 1.0600 as greenback weak point, navy spending, and technical shopping for gas positive factors
USD/JPY rebounds sharply, with a bullish pin candle pointing to check of resistance at 151
S&P 500 futures bounce, however an in depth under the 200DMA might open the door to deeper losses
Tariff fears ease after U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hints at a possible cope with Canada and Mexico.
Abstract
Get set for a danger rebound in Asia—maybe even a danger rip—after U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s post-market remarks on Tuesday sparked a partial unwind of current tariff considerations.
Simply hours after Washington slapped recent 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, Lutnick dropped a bombshell on Fox Enterprise, suggesting Donald Trump could also be open to a compromise by assembly each nations midway on tariffs. He mentioned a deal would most likely be introduced Wednesday.
Markets reacted sharply, with fairness index futures squeezing increased whereas bond futures slid. Currencies battered by tariff uncertainty prolonged earlier positive factors, led by which surged 1.3%.
Name it the most recent iteration of the Trump “put” or proof that tariffs stay a negotiating tactic slightly than a executed deal—both method, Lutnick’s feedback (assuming Trump doesn’t contradict them) have eased a number of the danger forward of main U.S. knowledge on Wednesday, together with the companies PMI and jobs report, which land simply two days earlier than non-farm payrolls.
Weakening knowledge and fears that tariffs would choke financial exercise had weighed on danger property, however this short-term reprieve could also be sufficient to elevate sentiment for now.
Benchmark Bond Futures Sign Turning Level
Supply: TradingView
The above chart tracks futures. Till Tuesday, it had been a wealthy searching floor for lengthy bond bulls. Nevertheless, worth and momentum indicators over the previous 24 hours counsel we could have seen a near-term high for bond costs—implying the other for yields.
The failure to interrupt above the December 2024 swing highs was adopted by a pointy reversal, delivering a bearish engulfing candle on the each day timeframe. Whereas a cluster of identified help ranges sits slightly below, the shut beneath the 200DMA and RSI (14) breaking its uptrend level to a rising danger that the bullish development has run its course. Which means trades premised on decrease U.S. Treasury yields could must be reassessed within the close to time period.
EUR/USD Delivers Highly effective Bullish Break
Supply: TreadingView
got here to fruition in model, with weak point, elevated European navy spending, and technical shopping for overwhelming sellers parked from 1.05-1.0530. The frequent foreign money finally pushed by means of resistance at 1.0600.
That stage could now act as help, providing a platform for bulls focusing on an extension in direction of the following layer of resistance at 1.0668, adopted by the 200-day transferring common. Momentum stays with the bulls, with RSI (14) and MACD indicators favouring shopping for dips over promoting rips within the close to time period.
USD/JPY Bulls Struggle Again Onerous
Supply: TradingView
was all the time going to be one to observe on a day like yesterday, given the harm an unwind of yen carry trades brought on in early August final yr when considerations over the U.S. economic system final spiked.
At one stage, the pair dipped under the December swing low of 148.65, sliding to simply above 148.00 as danger property traded close to session lows. Nevertheless, the worth motion into the shut was undeniably optimistic for danger, with a bullish pin candle hinting at a possible extension of the rebound in direction of identified resistance at 151. The 148.65 stage stays a key draw back marker.
Momentum indicators proceed to skew reasonably bullish, reinforcing the inclination to purchase dips in the event that they happen.
S&P 500 Futures: 200DMA Saves the Day
Supply: TradingView
face a make-or-break session technically after breaching long-standing uptrend help earlier than bouncing into the shut following a quick dip under the important thing 200-day transferring common.
Excluding Lutnick’s feedback, the general worth and momentum image stays bearish. The worth not solely closed by means of the uptrend but additionally under 5808, a key horizontal stage courting again to October final yr. RSI (14) and MACD are trending decrease—momentum indicators that usually favour a bearish bias.
Nevertheless, the bounce off the 200DMA could encourage bulls on the lookout for a squeeze after current losses. Other than 5808 and trendline resistance round 5875, different topside ranges of word embrace 6000, the place bullish probes have repeatedly stalled over the previous week, and the 50-day transferring common.
A break and shut under the 200DMA can be an undeniably bearish sign, probably opening the door for a check of 5724 and a worth hole all the way down to 5670.
Unique Put up
