In 2029, whole retail gross sales of the Europe-5 economies — France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK — will attain €2.7 trillion, per Forrester’s lately printed Europe-5 On-line Retail Forecast, 2024 To 2029. Moreover, shoppers within the Europe-5 nations will spend €565 billion in 2029 on on-line purchases, accounting for almost 21% of whole retail gross sales throughout these 5 markets. The report supplies a five-year forecast for whole retail gross sales, on-line retail gross sales, and on-line retail penetration of twenty-two product classes for every of the Europe-5 economies, with historic knowledge going again to 2002.
Forrester expects that whole retail gross sales, on-line retail gross sales, and offline retail gross sales in these 5 nations will develop in step with pre-pandemic progress charges from 2025 and thereafter.
Key Drivers For Progress
Bettering financial situations will drive whole retail gross sales progress. A mix of declining inflation, declining rates of interest, falling unemployment charges, rising actual disposable incomes, growing retail commerce volumes, and a robust rebound in tourism has created a optimistic financial local weather that can help retail gross sales progress within the Europe-5 nations over the subsequent 5 years. Discretionary retail gross sales, which have been subdued over the previous two years attributable to elevated spending on necessities due to excessive inflation, will regain momentum.
Value, choice, and comfort will stay key drivers for on-line retail gross sales progress. Two-thirds of e-commerce progress within the Europe-5 markets will come from a rise in on-line spending per purchaser — and one-third will come from a rise within the on-line purchaser inhabitants. Market-driven cross-border e-commerce progress and the growing market presence of Chinese language e-commerce platforms comparable to AliExpress, SHEIN, and Temu in Europe will contribute to e-commerce progress.
Offline retail gross sales will proceed to develop. Offline retail gross sales will see a lift in progress by means of retailers adopting omnichannel methods to combine on-line and offline experiences. Bodily shops stay essential as a result of many shoppers recognize the tactile expertise, the immediacy of buying, and the chance to strive merchandise earlier than committing to a purchase order. Moreover, shops operate as handy hubs for companies like click-and-collect and returns, enhancing total buyer satisfaction. Retailers comparable to Decathlon and Zalando are increasing their bodily footprint to enhance their on-line platforms, recognizing that bodily shops may drive elevated on-line gross sales in close by (“catchment”) areas.
Please contact your Forrester account supervisor or consumer success supervisor to arrange a steerage session with me to study extra about e-commerce and total retail progress in Europe.
