Right here is my base case.
Greenland:
It is a actual pet mission of Trump’s. He is an actual property man, it is the most important island on the planet and there are solely 56,000 folks there. Denmark is weak, there may be already a US base on the island and there are in all probability loads of pure assets ready to be found. Plus, imperialism is kinda enjoyable.
Panama canal:
Some buddies in delivery have been complaining to him about the fee to make use of the canal and so they do not prefer it. America did construct the canal however American ships or these bringing items to America do not get any particular deal. In the meantime, it is one of many best monopolies in world historical past and funds all of Panama’s authorities, permitting the remainder of the nation to be an enormous tax-free cash laundering operation to fund issues just like the Trump Lodge in Panama, which was as soon as the most important constructing in Latin America. After all, that mission was one thing of a catastrophe (I lived there) and it was later re-named and he in all probability holds a grudge.
Canada:
It was a lame joke that he is beating to loss of life.
Now for the enjoyable half.
(Warning: Don’t take this severely and definitely do not devise some sort of buying and selling technique primarily based on it. That is for enjoyable)
What if I am flawed? What if there may be some sort of technique right here?
The plain reply is that it is a transfer to counter China. It will intention to create some sort of schism on the planet that places the Americas (or at the least the Caribbean and east coast of the Americas) firmly within the US sphere.
Panama Canal
I did a deep dive on China delivery, and surprisingly, blocking the Panama Canal would not be that huge of a deal. Just about all Chinese language items to Europe and Africa move via the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope. For locations like Brazil and Argentina, circling Cape Horn could be a reasonable delivery headache however would not materially change the economics or commerce with China. T
Two spots do stand out as more-vulnerable — Venezuela and Cuba. Each are precarious economies that will have vital bother buying and selling with China if pressured to go the great distance. Practically half of Venezuela’s oil goes to China and 50-70% of it goes via the canal.
If Trump actually had imperial designs, then Cuba is unquestionably the place to begin and an invasion is just not one thing you broadcast prematurely however blocking its canal commerce and tightening the screws on the economic system even additional would lay the groundwork for regime change.
Greenland:
There’s some speak of tightening Arctic delivery lanes as some sort of grand-master technique nevertheless it does not make sense to me. Ships might use the Russian route as a substitute as it isn’t that a lot of a detour. Some folks see some sort of world warming angle however to even get to Winnipeg, which is the coldest main metropolis on the planet, world temperatures would want to rise 5-7 levels Celsius. In that sort of state of affairs, you’d have a complete breakdown in just about all the pieces.
I’ve to assume it is extra about exploiting assets which might be there, or could be there. It will enhance US landmass by 23% and the financial prices could be low. I imply, even should you bribed each individual in Greenland with $1 million, that will solely be $56 billion. Examine that to the $200 billion already spent by the US in Ukraine or the $953 billion within the rip-off often called the Paycheck Safety Program.
On condition that tech bros have additionally taken over the Republican Occasion, it could be seen as a take a look at case for the way efficient they will run algos. If you happen to can manipulate an election, why not attempt to manipulate a rustic into becoming a member of the US?
If that works, then Greenland would simply be the take a look at case for…
Canada
To illustrate that Elon and the tech bros tweak the algo and Greenlanders be a part of the US willingly. There will not be bribes however the US cash will move in and Greenlanders would have the choice of shifting to the US.
Not solely wouldn’t it obtain its targets for Greenland, however it will develop into a tremendous propaganda software, a minnow on the fish hook that will be used to catch the whale — Canada.
There’s the kernel of a plan there and Trump already hinted at the remainder of it, saying he would use ‘financial drive’ to persuade Canada to affix. The US can wreck nearly any world economic system with the wave of a pen and Canada is extremely weak. The overwhelming majority if the economic system is directed to the US, with no alternate options. The oil pipelines from Canada virtually all go in a single course, and even some vital Canadian pipelines for home use take a short-cut via the USA.
Now Canada can be the USA’s largest export market so it might ship main ache to the US as effectively but when the US had been to steadily undermine Canada’s economic system through commerce and different under-handed strategies, whereas leveraging social media, it will have an opportunity. Drive the loonie to sub-50 cents and supply to merge at par and supply free motion right into a better-paying economic system and that is a compelling supply.
To be trustworthy, I believe the most important drawback with it’s the Republican facet, as a result of should you had been to present Canada the proportionate Home, Senate and electoral faculty votes, the US election outcomes could be very completely different. However Canada is insanely wealthy in useful resource wealth and in some sort of robot-dominated, no immigration world, you would run a formidable closed economic system.
Simply please god do not let this clown anyplace close to any sort of negotiation:
Kevin O’Leary
